789
FXUS64 KAMA 061122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Critical fire weather conditions highlight the short term
forecast. These conditions are very likely both today and tomorrow
for the western and central Panhandles. This afternoon, there is a
low end chance for a storm or two to form across the eastern
Panhandles. If storms are able to form, they could quickly become
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
hazards.

Early this morning, the low level jet has kicked in across the
area and breezy to gusty winds are being observed across the
Panhandles. The highest wind gusts have been around 45 mph so far
but cannot rule out a few gusts near 50 mph for the northwestern
Panhandles. The winds may a little near sunrise before ramping
back up again late this morning into the afternoon hours.

A Pacific front/dryline will begin to move across the Panhandles
after sunrise this morning. This feature will usher in much drier
air, with dew points dropping upwards of 50 degrees by mid
afternoon today. Winds to the west of the dryline will become
westerly and breezy to gusty winds will occur this afternoon.
These conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions
today (for additional fire weather details, see the Fire Weather
discussion below). How fast the dryline moves to the east will
play a critical role in the severe thunderstorm threat for today.
Most guidance does hold off convecting along the dryline until it
mixes to western Oklahoma. However, the dryline has been further
west most days this season compared to the guidance so cannot
completely rule out a storm or two forming across the eastern
Panhandles. If a storm is able to form, the environment will be
primed for storms to quickly become severe, with large hail and
damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. The storms will quickly
move off into Oklahoma with the severe threat ending for the CWA
by late afternoon to early evening. High temperatures for this
afternoon will warm back up to the mid 70s west to mid 80s east.

Tuesday will be very similar to today, other than there is no
chances for storms across the area. The critical fire weather
conditions are very likely once again (for additional fire weather
details for Tuesday, see the Fire Weather discussion below).
Leeside low pressure will tighten the pressure gradient across the
area on Tuesday and breezy west winds will occur across the area.
The current wind speed forecast for Tuesday is a bit slower than
today, with gusts upwards of 35 to 40 mph. H850 WAA will be a bit
stronger on Tuesday with mid 20s C progged temperatures by late
afternoon over the region. With these warmer temperatures aloft
and no cloud cover, highs for Tuesday afternoon should rise into
the 80s area wide.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Dry weather will continue Wednesday into Thursday as another upper
level low pressure system organizes over the southern Great Basin
region. A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night
and will result in temperatures near or slightly below normal for
Thursday through the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
may return Friday afternoon through Sunday as the aforementioned
upper level low pressure system initially around the southern
Great Basin region moves eastward in a much weakened state. NBM
slight chance to low end chance pops look reasonable at this time
and were utilized in the grids for Friday through Sunday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR conditions are forecast for a few more hours at KAMA.
KDHT/KGUY may briefly drop back to MVFR ceilings during this same
timeframe. All sites will be VFR by mid morning and should remain
that way through the rest of this TAF issuance. Gusty winds out
of the southwest will eventually become westerly later on today.
Gusts of 35 to approaching 40 kts are likely at all sites. Winds
will slowly decrease during the nighttime hours but gusts of 20
to 25 kts will still be possible.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are very likely today for the
central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy to gusty
west winds are forecast for this afternoon with gusts up to 40 to
45 mph. Relative humidity values will drop down into the single
digits today, with the lowest RH values around 7 percent. These
conditions combined with continued dry grasses will lead to
critical fire weather conditions and RFTI values between 5 to 9. A
Red Flag Warning is in affect for this afternoon through early
this evening.

Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur again on
Tuesday for the central and western Panhandles. Relative humidity
recovery on Monday night will be very poor with forecast maximum
RH values around 25 to 35 percent on Tuesday morning. West winds,
albeit a bit weaker, on Tuesday are likely with gusts up to 35 to
40 mph. Minimum RH values by Tuesday afternoon will once again
drop down to around 7 percent. These conditions will lead to RFTI
values in the 4 to 8 range on Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for the central and west given these conditions for
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  47  87  47 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              76  41  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  85  49  89  50 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              81  43  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  81  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               85  51  84  53 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 78  39  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  82  44  86  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                81  45  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  50  86  50 /  20   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   83  49  85  49 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                87  52  84  53 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              88  51  84  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002-006-011.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001-002.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05