000
AXNT20 KNHC 261132
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, and extends south-southwestward to 06N17W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 02N24W and to just south of the Equator at 01S38W
and to 01S37W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-33W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 17W-20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed over the NE Gulf at
29N85W. Its associated broad ridging covers the eastern and
central Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high
pressure with relatively lower pressure over the western Gulf and
inland Mexico and Texas has helped to increase east to southeast
winds over the western Gulf to fresh to strong speeds. Mostly
fresh east to southeast winds are over the central Gulf and
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the eastern
Gulf. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft over the NW and w-central
Gulf, 4 to 6 ft over the central Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area is supporting
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the eastern
Gulf, mostly fresh east to southeast winds over the central Gulf
and fresh to strong southeast winds over the western Gulf. The
pressure gradient will continue to tighten resulting in increasing
east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the
entire basin through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak 11 to 12
ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse
to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from near 15N70W northward to across
the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic continuing farther
north well into the Atlantic basin. Overcast to broken multilayer
clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over most of the central section of the
Caribbean and over most of the island of Hispaniola. There is a
possibility for heavy rainfall that may result from thunderstorm
activity over portions of Hispaniola today, especially in hilly
terrain and low-lying areas. Please refer to bulletins from your
local weather service offices for more details on this activity.

Overnight ASCAT data shows generally depicts fresh to strong
northeast to east trade winds over the south-central section of
the sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the rest of the
sea, except for fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba between
77W and 82W as seen in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea is
sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the
Windward Passage. By this evening, strengthening of the high
pressure will also force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf
of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of
Hispaniola through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough is analyzed from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the
eastern part of the Dominican Republic, while a cold front is
approaching the NW part of the area. An upper-level trough axis
is noted on water vapor imagery along a position from near
31N67W southwestward to the central Bahamas, to west-central
Cuba and to the western Caribbean Sea. Overcast multilayer
clouds, with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen from 18N to 28N between 59W and a line from 28N65W to
20N71W. An ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate to fresh
northeast winds west of the trough to the Bahamas and south of
27N. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are west of the
trough north of 27N. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds are
east of the trough to 60W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds.
Lower seas of 3 ft or less are over the northwest part of the
discussion area.

In the eastern Atlantic, weakening low pressure of 1014 mb is at
20N39W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds
exhibiting cyclonic rotation are noted from 19N to 22N between
35W and 39N. Scattered showers are possible with these clouds.
Scattered broken low-level clouds rotating cyclonically around
the low center are evident from 18N to 21N between 39W and 42W.
Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Seas within the
vicinity of the low are 8 ft in north long-period swell as
indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass just west
of the low. Seas of 8 ft also due to long-period north swell are
from 22N to 30N between 35W and 44W.

Also in the eastern Atlantic, a rather elongated upper-level low
is identified on water vapor imagery near 28N29W. An upper-level
trough extends from the low to 17N32W, to 11N32W and to near
07N35W. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen within
close proximity of the low from 25N to 28N and between 26W and
32W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther
southeast north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 23N
between the western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that is presently
northwest of the area will merge with a frontal trough that
extends from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the eastern Dominican
Republic late tonight. The cold front will reach from near 31N58W
to 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to
Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough
over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North
swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of about 11 ft
over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure
in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to
northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By
late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds
south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west
to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast
waters along with building seas. Rather tranquil conditions are
expected Tue and Tue night as high pressure becomes centered over
the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient
supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over
the southern waters.

$$
Aguirre