261
FXUS64 KBMX 282004
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
304 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

A few very light showers showing up on radar sweeps early this
afternoon, and will continue to keep small POPs (20% or less)
through the rest of the afternoon to account for these.

Otherwise, the short term part of the forecast still mostly just
involves watching the action to our west. The ongoing shower
activity is likely diurnally enhanced, so it should diminish
around sunset. Beyond that, the overnight portion of the forecast
becomes one of winds (generally 5-10 mph) and clouds (less than 50
percent coverage).

Ultimately, mid level troughing to our west will help to push a
surface cold front into our area on Monday. The bulk of the rain
should hold off until after noon. But it does appear that by the
time we get to 4 pm or so, an area of showers and storms should be
moving into our western counties. Best placement of POPs tomorrow
afternoon does rely a lot on what transpires to our west this
evening and tonight.

Fortunately for us, the best forcing will still be well back to
the west and lifting out to our north. So, while there`s enough
instability to result in some thunderstorms, we still don`t think
the parameters are quite there for severe convection.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

A wide variety of solutions provided by models for the system
impacting Alabama Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Majority of
models do show a weakening line of convection approaching west
Alabama Monday afternoon, but timing varies from early afternoon
to early evening. Now that we are in the 24-36 hour time range,
will give more weight or confidence to the CAMS and high-res
models. These models show the line reaching the MS/AL state line
by mid-afternoon, with considerable weakening of the northern
portion of the line towards late afternoon as the low level jet
decreases. There may be a window of 3-4 hours in the early
evening with minimal coverage of convection over west Alabama,
then additional convection develops over MS as the mid level trof
axis approaches with steepening mid level lapse rates. The better
coverage of convection will likely occur across Alabama Monday
night as mid-level lapse rates increase and a low level jet
develops. Might see some stronger storms Monday night as MUCAPE
values approach 1000 J/kg. The activity will shift into east
Alabama Tuesday morning with the rain ending across east Alabama
by late afternoon.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper ridging will take place over
Alabama with lower rain chances and warmer daytime temperatures.
By the end of the week, an upper trof will pass to the north of
Alabama, and rain chances will increase over central Alabama.


58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2024

Ongoing cumulus level cloudiness early in the period should mix
out and up through the first 3-4 hours of the forecast, keeping
conditions at VFR. Based on the latest computer model low level
moisture projections, it appears there should be less cloud
coverage tonight/Monday morning compared to last night/this
morning. I went ahead and kept conditions VFR overnight based on
this idea. If the strato-cumulus clouds do form tonight, I don`t
foresee them getting much below 3000 ft (if even that low).
Precipitation should hold off in our area until after 1800 UTC
Monday.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well
above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning,
with increasing rain chances across west Alabama Monday afternoon,
spreading eastward Monday night and into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  83  60  79 /   0  10  60  70
Anniston    59  82  62  80 /   0  10  60  60
Birmingham  62  83  63  81 /   0  20  60  50
Tuscaloosa  62  83  62  82 /   0  50  60  40
Calera      62  82  63  80 /   0  30  60  50
Auburn      61  81  63  79 /   0  10  20  40
Montgomery  61  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  50
Troy        60  84  63  83 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...61