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000
FXUS64 KBMX 091141
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
641 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Widespread rain will prevail through the morning hours across north
Alabama, possibly a few elevated thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts
today will average between one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch. A
closed upper low digging southward into Texas tonight will result in
height rises downstream over Alabama, and shower activity will be
suppressed overnight, with only a small chance north of Interstate
20. Highs today will range from the upper 60s across the far
northern counties to near 80 south of Interstate 85. Mild tonight
with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Wednesday.

A complex and strong storm system is expected to move through the
region Wednesday. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and severe storms are all
possible across Central AL.

A deep trough with an associated low pressure system will lift out
of Texas and into the Mid-MS Valley through the day on Wednesday. As
this takes place, the upper trough becomes negatively tilted and the
surface low gradually deepens.

Flooding:

Deep southerly flow throughout the atmospheric column will lead to
extremely high PWATs across the area. Any showers and thunderstorms
that develop will be capable of very high rainfall rates. Guidance
continues to show multiple axes of heaviest rainfall across the
area, but there`s quite a bit of variability in where those set
up. This leads to low confidence in the overall rainfall amounts
in the forecast, which are generally 3-4" across the area. It`s
possible that we have an axis or two of even higher rain amounts.

Severe:

The severe threat has increased across a good portion of Central AL
as newer high-resolution guidance has become available. Guidance
shows significant variability in the overall evolution of
thunderstorm activity, so specific details on how the day will
unfold remain somewhat uncertain. Current forecast has a fairly
strong MCS moving through South Mississippi and into SW AL during
the afternoon hours. The further northeast this system goes, it
encounters a slightly less-favorable environment with decreasing
lapse rates and decreasing instability. Guidance also continues to
show very limited to no surface based instability, which could be
a limiting factor on the overall severity. However, the
impressive dynamics of this system may be strong enough to make
the most of any limited instability that`s present. Damaging winds
still appear to the main concern across Central AL, though
tornadoes are certainly possible if any storms become surface-
based. The best chances of that occurring will likely be in the
far southwestern counties.

Wind:

Gusty winds are likely across Central AL as the proximity of the
surface low will increase the pressure gradient in the area. Winds
are expected to be sustained at 15-20mph with gusts up to 40mph.

Thursday through Monday.

Rain will linger across the area on Thursday due to wrap-around
moisture on the backside of the departing low. Clearing skies and a
warming trend are expected Friday. The warm trend then continues
through the weekend with partly cloudy skies.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2024

Mostly light rain with vsbys aoa 5 miles will persist across
north Alabama thru 15Z. MVFR will likely develop along and north
of I-20 from 15Z thru 20Z, then become VFR after 21Z. Little or no
rain expected after 18Z with cigs aoa 5000 feet in most
locations.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across the
area today, with the highest coverage in the north. Showers and
storms will be more widespread on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
A drier airmass returns on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  58  76  58 /  60  20  70 100
Anniston    71  61  76  61 /  40  10  70 100
Birmingham  70  62  75  60 /  50  20  80 100
Tuscaloosa  72  63  74  60 /  50  10  90 100
Calera      70  61  74  61 /  40  10  80 100
Auburn      75  62  76  64 /  20  10  60  90
Montgomery  77  61  77  62 /  10  10  70 100
Troy        79  61  79  62 /  10   0  70 100

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-
Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-
Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...58/rose