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000
FXUS65 KBOI 120237
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
837 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...An area of showers has developed across mainly
Malheur County and is moving northeast toward Ontario. This area
will later move into the West Central Mountains and surrounding
areas. So far only light rain and weak winds have been reported,
and this is not expected to change this evening. Friday, strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the area, as
indicated in the previous discussion below. See that for more
detail. Will do a minor update to increase the chance of
precipitation from central Malheur County to the West Central
Mountain zone. Update out shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers this evening north of KBNO-
KBOI. Showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday and some may
be strong. Wind gust potential to 50 kt. MVFR and brief IFR
possible. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10k ft
MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt becoming 20-35 kt by 09z/Fri.

KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers should stay west and then north of
terminal tonight. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR on Saturday, isolated
thunderstorms in central OR Saturday afternoon, surface winds
E-SE 10-20 kt during afternoon. Areas of mountain obscuration
with MVFR to IFR in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Variable surface winds 10-20kt Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Upper low near
48/138W this afternoon is forecast to move SSE to 37/130W off
the California coast by Friday afternoon. Westerly flow aloft
will turn southwesterly and increasingly moist Friday.
Instability will increase in our CWA Friday afternoon with
steepening lapse rates, leading to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, strongest and most numerous (30 percent coverage)
Friday evening. SPC depicts a marginal risk of large hail and
strong outflow winds at that time. Upper flow will become
southerly Saturday and southeasterly Sunday when the low tracks
inland across the Great Basin. Warm again Saturday with more
showers (60 to 80 percent chance) and afternoon thunderstorms
(15 to 25 percent chance) Saturday afternoon in eastern Oregon,
while western Idaho is drier, then Saturday night again in
eastern Oregon and spreading into Owyhee County/ID.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be the warmest yet
this year with widespread 70s in the valleys and upper 50s and
60s in the mountains. Saturday looks like the warmer day by
about two degrees. Boise has about a 30 percent chance of
reaching 80F on Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...A trough will move across
the NV on Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
highest along the NV border. A trough digging south over British
Columbia will draw some of the moisture from the NV trough over
the area on Monday, keeping a threat of showers and thunderstorms.
As the cold front moves south into the Pacific NW, cooler air
will arrive from the north, with limited moisture. Temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday lower to around 10-15 degrees below
normal. Showers will generally be focused over the higher
terrain during the afternoons as the trough remains overhead
through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is low beyond Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA