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000
FXUS65 KBOU 112325
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
525 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday through Monday will see well above normal temperatures
  and dry conditions. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
  are expected with the highest fire weather concerns on Saturday
  and Monday.

- Late Monday through the rest of next work week will be cool,
  wet, and windy across our entire forecast area. Moderate snow is
  likely in the mountains while considerable uncertainty with
  regards to precipitation amount and type remains across the
  plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Quiet, Spring day across the northeast Colorado this afternoon.
Other than a few patches of cumulus, satellite imagery shows mainly
clear skies. Quiet weather is expected to continue tonight and into
tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge. Temperatures aloft warm 4-6
degrees for Friday to support sufficiently warmer temperatures than
the last few days. Highs are expected to rise into the 70s across
the lower elevations with even some upper 70s possible in spots on
the plains. The high country will see highs mainly in the 40s to
near 50. It will also be quite a bit drier tomorrow. Model soundings
show well-mixed profiles in the afternoon with decent dewpoint
depressions highlighting the dry airmass. This will bring relative
humidity values into the lower teens and can`t rule out some upper
single digit values in spots. This will elevate fire weather
conditions in spots. More on that in the Fire Discussion below.
Moisture will be pretty meager in the high country also, limiting
shower activity. Can`t rule out an isolate shower in the late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue across North Central
and Northeastern Colorado through the weekend as upper level high
pressure dominates the Rocky Mountain Region. Temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s across the plains both
Saturday and Sunday with a few low 80s possible. There could be a
few showers or storms across the high country Friday evening due to
the passage of an upper level disturbance. In addition, the warm and
dry conditions combined with wind gusts to 25 mph will result in
increased fire danger across portions of the plains and Palmer
Divide both days as well.

Cooler unsettled weather is expected early next week as the upper
ridge shifts eastward into the Central and Eastern U.S. and an upper
level storm system moves across the Southern Rockies. Models have
come into better agreement and now show the upper level closed low
tracking from Northern Arizona across the Colorado/New Mexico Border
and then into Southwestern Kansas by 06Z Tuesday. The mountains
should see periods of snow showers from Monday through Tuesday
morning due to increased moisture and lift associated with the upper
low. Initially snowfall rates should be light due light winds aloft
and poor orographic flow. However, the rates should increase by
late Monday and continue into Tuesday morning as the upper low
lifts northeast into the Central Plains States and a more
favorable northwesterly orographic flow combines with cold air
advection. Many of the models are showing over a foot of snow
along the Continental Divide, including Rocky Mountain National
Park. Therefore, we may end up needing to issue and advisory for
these areas.

The forecast for the Northeastern Plains is quite a bit more tricky
due to the fact that the upper level low is not in phase with the
low and mid level features. The favorable 500 MB track combined with
healthy QG lift would suggest quite a bit of QPF across portions of
the Front Range Foothills, Urban Corridor, plains and Palmer Divide.
However, many of the solutions have the 700 MB and surface low over
far Northeastern Colorado and Southwestern Nebraska. This pattern
would produce northwesterly downsloping flow along the foothills and
adjacent plains which would greatly limit precipitation amounts in
these areas. Further northeast across the plains, a deformation zone
could set up with the potential for some heavier bands of
precipitation. Since precipitation should remain mostly as rain,
this scenario would not have too much of an impact east of the
mountains, other than gusty northwesterly winds to 45 mph.

Cool unsettled weather is expected to continue across the forecast
area through Thursday as an upper level trough and associated cold
front moves across the Northern Rockies. This system will bring more
snow to the high country along with a 15-40% chance of rain and snow
showers to the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions thru the period.  East winds will become
SSE thru the earlly evening and then go drainage by 07z.
Winds on Fri will be light and variable in the morning
and then go light easterly by 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Friday will be dry with above normal temperatures. Min relative
humidity values drop into the lower teens with upper single digits
possible across the lower elevations. Winds stay mainly on the
lighter end with the exception of marginally breezy conditions (gusts
< 25 mph) mainly over the Palmer Divide and east. This will
elevate fire weather conditions in those areas with some spotty
areas reaching critical conditions.

Warm, dry and breezy conditons will result in elevated to critical
fire weather conditions across portions of the plains through
Monday. Wind gusts up to 25 mph along with very low relative
humidity in the 7 to 12 percent range are expected both Saturday
and Sunday. The fire weather concerns may ease somewhat on Monday
and Tuesday due to an increase in relative humidity along with an
increase in clouds and showers. However, near critical to critical
fire weather conditions may continue across the southern sections
of the plains where humidity values may remain low and winds
could increase.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...JK