Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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736 FXUS64 KBRO 110523 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1223 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak cold front looks to stall over the area today, providing slightly cooler temperatures and slight rain chances through the short term period. A shortwave moving through the mostly zonal flow aloft looks to provide a small amount of forcing over Deep South Texas tonight. Combined with ample instability and low level moisture, this could support a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with rain chances around 20%. The stationary front will likely remain over the area through the period, and additional additional forcing from passing upper level shortwaves will continue to support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Rain chances remain around 20% Saturday, with the best chances shifting to the northern half of the CWA by Saturday night. Generally light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to advect warm, moist air to the region, although the more northerly component will keep temperatures slightly cooler than we have seen the past couple of days. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night are expected to drop into the mid to upper 70s, while high temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: -Warming temperatures through the week. -Rain chances into Monday and return late week The long term period remains on track. On Sunday, warmer temperatures will begin to move back into the area as a warm front continues to move north into central Texas. While we will see 90s everywhere away from the coast, by Monday triple digits will push back into the Rio Grande Plains. Another cold front will sag into the region on Tuesday, but once again we will see this front stall along the border. Wednesday into Thursday this front retreats north as a warm front, but temperatures Tuesday through Friday should remain generally in the 90s with a few spots along the border reaching 100 degrees. Overnight lows will continue remain in the 70s. Weak overrunning, a few impulses moving overhead and onshore flow will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend and into Monday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm risk for Sunday. We dry out for Tuesday and much of Wednesday, but as weak overrunning, onshore flow and a few weak impulses move overhead, rain chances return, primarily for the northern ranchlands Wednesday evening into Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A warm front will retreat through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, producing veering light to moderate winds and mostly cloudy skies. Overall, MVFR to VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: Light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds and moderate seas are expected to continue through the short term. A cold front will likely become stationary over the area this evening, resulting in a slight chances of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Some visibility reductions are likely to continue through the period, thanks to a combination of haze and fog developing along the coast, though dense fog advisories arent likely to be needed. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are expected for the start of the weekend. Sunday Through Thursday...Moderate winds and seas of generally 3 to 4 feet will prevail through the forecast period. Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible, mainly Sunday and Wednesday, due to elevated winds. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible at times through Monday, and again midweek which could locally enhance winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 91 78 94 / 10 20 10 20 HARLINGEN 75 94 76 97 / 10 10 10 20 MCALLEN 77 96 78 98 / 10 10 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 96 77 100 / 10 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 79 85 / 20 20 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 92 / 10 10 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$