National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBYZ 180324
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
924 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.UPDATE...
We updated PoPs for current trends. Unstable cyclonic NW flow over
the area yet this evening. Lots of radar returns upstream...though
some of it may just be virga. Report of graupel at Glasgow unusual
for this late in evening. Added PoPs for our east central zones
(Miles City, Baker area). Still some decent snow showers occuring
in Big Horns region aided by upslope flow. Was tempted to cancel
last Winter Storm Highlight over Pryors/Big Horns...but not quite
comfortable yet based on a few webcams. Most activity will likely
dwindle late after midnight...with just lingering isolated
flurries. BT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday night...

After a brief but intense period of snow from last evening through
this morning, snow is rapidly tapering off along and south of
I-90. Web cams show mostly wet roadways as of mid-day, and
visibility looks pretty good outside of Sheridan county. With
radar and model trends agreeing went ahead and cancelled most of
the winter highlites, leaving the Pryor/Bighorn Mountain Warning,
and the Sheridan Foothills Advisory. Anticipate we will drop the
advisory in the next few hours given the quick diminishment of
snow over that area. For the warning, will continue that into
tonight, but most likely will be able to drop it before midnight
tonight.

After snow ends tonight over the southern mountains, the main
impactful weather will be the cold nighttime/cool daytime
temperatures to close out the week. Highs still on track to be 10
to 15 degrees below seasonal levels, with lows in the teens to mid
20s (coldest where snow cover is present).

Thursday will see more sun, especially in the afternoon hours.
Northwest winds will be gusty at times, especiall for SE Montana
where gusts over 40 mph are likely after 10am. Instability
continues over the area for a few rain/snow showers in the
afternoon over the western and southern terrain. Can`t rule out an
orographic precipitation band developing off the Crazy/Belts/Snowy
mountains extending southeast over the lower elevations.
Precipitation accumulations will be light as the northwest winds
will dry out the lower elevations tomorrow, with afternoon RH
values in the 20s in many locations.

Friday looks similar to Thursday, but Friday will be a bit cooler
as a lobe of energy aloft wraps into the forecast area. This
energy won`t bring much in the way of precipitation, just
scattered upslope showers into the western terrain like Thursday,
but will turn wind to the north limiting the downslope
warming/drying we get from northwest winds. Still expect gusts 20
to 35 mph Friday, strongest over SE Montana.

With lows in the teens and 20s over the next several nights, be
sure to protect tender vegitation. Chambers

Saturday through Wednesday...

Saturday will see temperatures return to more normal values in the
mid 40s to low 50s. A shortwave trough will make its way across
the southern reaches of Montana bringing a 20-30% chance of
snowfall to the Absaroka/Beartooth and Bighorn mountains.
Accumulations look to remain light with a <20% chance of getting
over 1 inch of snowfall. Sunday into Monday will see more
significant wave move in. This wave and associated low pressure
system will bring winds out of the south and westerly downsloped
winds aloft. This will create the conditions for a significant
warmup with temperatures on Sunday getting into the low 60s for
most. Late Sunday into early Monday the cold front will bring
precipitation chances (40%) to the region. Precipitation looks to
be light with a <10% chance of seeing >0.25 inches of rain. Winds
will remain elevated gusting into the 20s and 30s Sunday into
Monday as the front moves through bringing pressure rises and
cooler temperatures. These cooler temperatures will mean mid 50s
to low 60s on Monday. Tuesday through the rest of the week will
see a more westerly downsloping pattern emerge raising
temperatures into the high 60s and low 70s by Wednesday. Torgerson


&&

.AVIATION...

Snowfall over the mountains and foothills will be decreasing into
the night. Isolated snow showers over the plains are also
possible overnight. NW winds will let up a little over night and
pick up again after sunrise mainly for the east (KMLS) with gusts
up to 35 kts. Expect light snow showers for the mountains to
redevelop tomorrow afternoon. TS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/046 026/043 025/051 032/063 038/060 037/066 043/072
    20/U    00/B    21/U    04/R    41/B    01/B    12/R
LVM 021/044 022/042 022/051 033/060 032/058 033/063 039/068
    01/B    10/B    20/B    14/R    21/B    01/B    13/R
HDN 026/048 024/045 023/054 030/065 037/062 036/069 042/074
    20/B    00/B    11/U    03/R    41/B    01/B    12/R
MLS 028/044 023/041 021/047 028/063 039/059 034/066 042/072
    30/N    00/B    00/U    01/B    41/B    00/B    11/B
4BQ 027/045 022/041 020/049 029/066 039/058 035/065 042/072
    10/N    00/B    10/U    01/B    32/R    00/B    11/B
BHK 025/042 020/038 018/046 025/061 035/055 032/061 037/067
    20/N    00/N    00/U    01/B    43/R    00/B    11/B
SHR 020/043 019/042 018/050 027/064 034/057 032/064 038/072
    41/N    01/B    21/U    02/R    42/R    11/B    12/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 6 AM MDT Thursday
      FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 6 AM MDT Thursday
      FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings