Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 150830
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
430 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across southeastern portions of northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania early this morning exits to the southeast
before daybreak. Behind the front, a ridge builds through tonight as
the core of the ridge moves from the northern Great Plains toward
the Ozarks. This ridge then exits eastward before another cold front
sweeps eastward through our region Saturday evening through Saturday
night. Behind the front, a trough lingers over our region for the
rest of this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA through Saturday. At the surface, a cold front
extended SW`ward from near Meadville, PA to near Akron and Mount
Vernon, OH at 4 AM EDT. This front continues moving SE`ward and
should exit the rest of our CWA by 5 AM or 6 AM EDT this
morning. This front is exhibiting a gradual slope. Therefore
scattered rain showers are expected ahead of the cold front and
along the low-level portion of the front via low-level convergence
and associated moist ascent along the front. The ascent may
release weak, yet sufficient elevated instability for the
development of a few thunderstorms through about 5 AM EDT this
morning. In addition, the scattered rain showers should end
gradually from NW to SE through about 11 AM EDT this morning,
give or take an hour. Fair weather is then expected through
tonight as a surface ridge builds into our area, the core of
the ridge moves from the northern Great Plains toward the
Ozarks, and stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge.
Daytime highs today should reach mainly the mid 40`s to lower
50`s across roughly the eastern three-quarters of our CWA,
while highs should reach mainly the lower to mid 50`s farther to
the west. This is because strengthening subsidence accompanying
the ridge should allow low clouds to decrease considerably
farther to the west this afternoon into early evening, promoting
greater daytime heating. Overnight lows should reach mainly the
mid to upper 30`s around daybreak Saturday as at least partial
clearing continues to accompany the ridge and net low-level CAA
persists behind the recent cold front passage.

Of note, advection fog originating over central and eastern
portions of Lake Erie will continue to spread generally S`ward
and SE`ward behind the cold front this morning. Additional fog
may develop through daybreak as limited nocturnal cooling and
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall allow stratus
behind the surface front to expand downward. A Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT this morning for
central and eastern Lake Erie, NW PA, and portions of north-
central and NE OH where areas of fog with visibility of 1/2 mile
or less are expected. Will continue to monitor trends in obs
and model guidance for potential adjustments to the advisory.
Fog should dissipate late this morning with the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer and gradual low-level
dry air advection behind the front.

Primarily fair weather is expected on Saturday as the surface
ridge begins to exit generally E`ward and a stronger shortwave
trough aloft approaches from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. The
surface cold front accompanying the shortwave trough will sweep
SE`ward and should near the northwestern corner of our CWA
by nightfall. Isolated rain showers are possible generally along
and west of I-71 Saturday evening due to moist isentropic ascent
aloft preceding the shortwave trough axis and the potential for
showers triggered by the front to eventually outpace the front.
Intervals of sunshine and daytime heating complemented by net
low-level WAA on the backside of the ridge should allow late
afternoon highs to reach the 50`s in NW PA and the 50`s to lower
60`s in northern OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The theme of the short term forecast period will be an upper trough
over the eastern CONUS that will allow for more seasonable
temperatures to return to the region and allow for a persistent
chance of precipitation through the entire period. Temperature
profiles on Saturday night into Sunday will remain generally above
freezing and any precipitation for the first half of the forecast
period will be rain. 850 mb temperatures will eventually start to
fall to around -8C on Sunday night and the precipitation type will
flip to more snow. The mean low level wind will be northwesterly,
which will allow for some lake enhancement and heftier snow showers
on Sunday night into Monday. Overall, snow accumulations do not seem
significant with a melting inch of snow at worst for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast period appears to be a transitional period
with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS finally departing to
the east on Tuesday. Northwest flow and generally cooler
temperatures will remain across the region and the cooler low level
flow over Lake Erie will allow for continued lake enhanced
precipitation across the eastern half of the forecast area on
Tuesday. Low level flow appears to back during the middle of the
week and warmer temperatures will advect back into the region for
Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday should be a dry day with high
pressure trying to creep back into the region. The rain chances on
Thursday remain uncertain as there are distinct timing issues on the
next upper trough to enter the region and will keep a generic chance
of rain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft persists through 06Z/Sat. At the surface, a
cold from extended SW`ward from just north and west of KGKJ to
just east and south of KMNN. This front continues moving SE`ward
and should exit the rest of our region by ~09Z/Fri. Behind the
front, a ridge builds into our region as the core of the ridge
shifts from the northern Great Plains toward the Ozarks. Our
regional surface winds around 5-10 knots veer from primarily
SW`erly ahead of the front to primarily NW`erly to N`erly behind
the front.

Widespread low-level ceilings in the VFR to MVFR range ahead of
the front lower to the MVFR to IFR range behind the front.
Areas of advection fog and fog related to downward expansion of
stratus are expected behind the front, especially in NE OH and
NW PA. Ceilings/visibility as low as LIFR are expected in fog.
This fog should dissipate via diurnal convective mixing of the
boundary layer late this morning. In addition, the low-level
ceilings should exit our region generally from NW to SE during
this afternoon through early evening. Of note, scattered rain
showers are expected along the low- level portion of the cold
front. The potential for these showers should end gradually from
NW to SE through ~14Z/Fri.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold, northerly flow has overtaken the lake this morning behind a
cold front and dense fog has developed over the lake, mainly east of
the Lake Erie Islands. Fog should persist through the morning hours
and have a Dense Fog Advisory continuing through 11 AM. A surface
ridge will build from the southwest today behind the front and by
evening winds will try to back to the southwest across the entire
basin. A strong low pressure system will develop north of Lake
Superior and extend a cold front toward Lake Erie on Saturday.
Southwest winds will increase substantially by afternoon and may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels. The front will cross the lake on
Saturday night and westerly flow will take over. This onshore flow
should be strong enough into Sunday to merit the need for a Small
Craft Advisory, especially given increasing waves over the eastern
half of the lake. The trough and a reinforcing cold front will move
through on Sunday night into Monday and northwest flow will become
favored for early next week. The northwest flow seems sufficient
enough to likely merit another Small Craft Advisory for the eastern
two-thirds of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010>014-
     020>023-089.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145>149-
     165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Sefcovic


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