Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
532 FNUS28 KWNS 112046 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$