Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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475 FXUS63 KDDC 031900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...Updated Short/Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much needed rainfall expected across much of southwest Kansas Friday night and early Saturday. Some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - North winds and cooler air Saturday. - Severe thunderstorms are expected in Kansas Monday, with the risk of hail and tornadoes east of US 283 Monday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Midday surface observations showed moist advection well underway into SW KS, with southeast winds established, and dewpoints rising with time. Southeast winds will continue to increase through this afternoon, as surface pressures fall from SE Colorado into NW KS. With satellite imagery indicating midlevel cloud eroding quickly, temperatures will easily warm into the 70s this afternoon. With a lack of a forcing mechanism, kept the forecast dry (pops < 15%) through 7 pm. That stated, some CAMs such as 12z ARW suggests thunderstorms may be entering the far NW zones (Hamilton) around that time. Any initial thunderstorm activity Friday evening would favor the western zones, west of US 83, in a modest CAPE/shear parameter space supportive of at least marginal supercell structures. Rotating updrafts will be capable of 1-2 inch diameter hail this evening. Clearly the much richer moisture will remain locked up in West Texas through tonight, so moisture quality will be limited, keeping instability relatively muted. Still, dewpoints well into the 50s will support organized linear convection along and behind the expected strong cold front tonight. The cold front is forecast to reach the far NW zones about 10 pm, race to a DDC-LBL line by midnight, and exit the southeast CWA no later than 4 am Saturday. Most of the forcing for ascent will be post frontal, with the highly anticipated rainfall and embedded thunder occurring after the abrupt northerly wind shift. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected to be common, but since it will only be raining 3-5 hours at any one location, amounts of up to 1 inch may be difficult to achieve. Regardless, any rainfall on our dusty parched topsoils will be welcomed with open arms. Marginally severe wind/hail (58 mph, quarters) are possible within tonight`s expected line of convection, per SPC Day 1 probabilities, but modest CAPE should keep this threat muted. Outside of storms, north winds will be strong after midnight, gusting 30-40 mph. Rainfall will be wrapping up quickly from NW to SE Saturday morning, with low clouds and strong north winds. Cooler high pressure surface ridging builds in Saturday, weakening as it enters Kansas, providing a noticeably cooler day. Model guidance shows a net cooling of 6-8C at 850 mb versus Friday, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the 60s. Even with partial sunshine and diminishing northeast winds, afternoon temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal for early May. The process of warm/moist advection is expected to begin Saturday night and early Sunday, with light easterly winds and increasing clouds. Models have unanimously pulled back on rain production during this time, and reduced pops for Saturday night/early Sunday significantly. Temperatures will commonly be in the 40s sunrise Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Powerful, cold midlevel cyclone near 544 dm in strength is forecast to be over Nevada midday Sunday, western Wyoming at 7 am Monday, and eject into the western Dakotas, well north of SW KS, through 7 pm Monday. Related leeside cyclogenesis/lee troughing along the I-25 corridor will accelerate southeast winds Sunday afternoon, with the strongest winds across western zones. This synoptic evolution will begin the process of dragging higher quality moisture into SW KS from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints expected to reach into the lower 60s by Sunday evening. Convection potential Sunday and Sunday night looks very low, with a strong EML capping inversion and relatively cool boundary layer temperatures in the 60s and 70s keeping things rather stable despite the increasing moisture. Feel slight chance pops from the NBM this period are too high, and most locations will remain dry. Increased south/southeast winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. An intense low level jet will keep south winds strong and gusty, and temperatures elevated, Sunday night through Monday morning. Temperatures through sunrise Monday will easily hold in the 50s all zones, as dewpoints and surface moisture continue to improve. Intense trough will eject onto the plains, with an increasingly negative tilt, into NW Nebraska, through 7 pm Monday. This northern track will essentially dryslot much of SW KS, with strong SWly winds, and blowing dust and wildfire risk behind the dryline. This scenario is most preferred by 12z GFS/GEFS solutions, but as is typical, they are probably at least somewhat too progressive. 12z ECMWF/EPS members are slower with ejection, and as such are slower with the dryline`s advancement into central Kansas Monday afternoon. Dryline placement will be critical for sensible weather impacts in SW KS Monday, with intense wind/dust/fire concerns west of it, and potentially high end severe potential east of it. Latest 12z ECMWF solution strongly suggests the dryline and convective initiation zone will be somewhere in the eastern DDC CWA at peak heating 4-5 pm Monday. In other words, confidence is good the severe threat will be focused east of Dodge City/US 283, but any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of hail 2-4 inches in diameter and strong tornadoes. The combination of quality moisture and jet dynamics in a strongly sheared environment suggest high end supercells are probable; the question is where do they form, and how much time they will spend in the DDC CWA. West of the dryline, southwest winds will easily gust 40-50 mph Monday afternoon, with areas of blowing dust. Wildfire danger headlines are expected along and west of US 83. Again increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. Included blowing dust in the grids for the western zones, and mentioned severe wording in the eastern 1/4 of the CWA Monday afternoon. No cold air advection is expected behind this system, with westerly downslope components ensuring lower to mid 80s Tuesday afternoon. From Tuesday onward, the forecast will be dry and unusually convectively quiet for May, as the moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico will be cutoff from SW KS through at least next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1001 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR is expected to continue at all airports through at least 00z Sat. Broken mid level clouds will prevail through Friday afternoon with increasing S/SE winds, gusting to near 25 kts. A strong cold front is scheduled to sweep through the airports in the 06-09z Sat time range, accompanied by an abrupt, strong northerly wind shift, gusting to near 30 kts. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany frontal passage. Confidence was high enough to include convective TEMPO groups in this 18z set of TAFs for all airports, in this 06-09z range. Outflow winds from the strongest storms may approach 50 kts. Rain showers are expected to diminish from NW to SE through 12z Sat, with widespread MVFR stratus ceilings through Saturday morning. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner