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000
FXXX12 KWNP 111231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels, with numerous low level C-class
flares observed. Most of the flare activity was produced by regions
beyond the east and west limbs. Region 3628 (N08W35, Hsx/alpha)
exhibited decay and remained quiet. Region 3633 (S08E12, Cso/beta-gamma)
continued to decay while producing C-class activity. Region 3635
(N19E41, Cso/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise
unremarkable.

From ~11/0515-0605 UTC, an approximately 15 degree long filament,
centered near N20W02, was observed lifting off the solar disk.
Corresponding dimming was observed in SUVI 195 imagery, and a filament
eruption was observed lifting off to the east in SUVI 304. The resulting
coronagraph imagery is being analyzed and modeled at the time of this
summary. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely to continue at low levels on 11 Apr with a
slight chance for M-class flare activity. Probabilities increase for
12-13 Apr to a chance for isolated M-class flare activity with the
anticipated return of old AR 3615.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 13 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field ranged 1-7 nT, the Bz component was +/- 6 nT
with no significant, sustained southward deflections, and solar wind
speeds averaged near 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are anticipated to
wane over the course of 11 Apr, with a return to nominal conditions on
12 Apr. Disturbances are expected once again on 13 Apr due to negative
polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, are expected on 11 and 13 Apr due to CH HSS effects. A
primarily quiet environment is expected on 12 Apr.