226
FXUS63 KDLH 050811
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog this morning will lift between 8-9 AM for most.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Monday with breezy southeast
  wind and humidity dropping to 30-40 percent for most.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops Monday
  night and continues through Thursday. Highest chances will be
  Monday night into Tuesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today into Monday...

Patchy fog was occurring this morning under high pressure and
light winds. The fog will lift for most by 9AM. There was a
relatively narrow band of clouds moving east through western
into northern Minnesota and these will continue but should
decrease this afternoon. There will be some additional cumulus
that develops but skies will be partly to mostly sunny. Highs
will be in the sixties for most areas.

Mostly clear skies will occur tonight with low in the mid-
thirties to mid-forties.

Shortwave ridging will move through Northland Monday with strong
low pressure over the Northern Plains. We kept Monday dry, going
with consensus that keeps the showers west or south of the
Northland until Monday night. The pressure gradient will
strengthen Monday between the low to the west and high pressure
off to the east and gusty southeast will develop. Winds around
Lake Superior will be off lake and strongest in the Twin Ports
area. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday with
the gusty winds and humidity values dropping to 30 to 40% for
most. Highs Monday will be in the mid- sixties to around seventy
but it will be much cooler with the breezy off lake winds
around Lake Superior.

Monday night through Thursday...

Showers and some thunderstorms will develop Monday night and
continue into Tuesday evening with increasing forcing from the
upper low and surface low/fronts. A southerly 850MB low level
jet of 40-50knots is expected to aid in moisture transport and
PWAT values are forecast to climb to 1.25" Monday night into
Tuesday. Forecast instability isn`t very high but some
thunderstorms will occur through Tuesday. Severe storms are not
expected. Rainfall amounts Monday night into Tuesday night range
from a third of an inch to a but more than an inch. Ensemble
models have the highest chances for exceeding 1" of rain at
20-40% up the I35 corridor and along the North Shore. Some
locally higher amounts will be possible, especially with the
thunderstorms.

The upper low will remain over the Northern Plains into
Wednesday then it will shift east and south late week week.
Showers will remain over the Northland into at least Thursday
although rainfall amounts will be lighter compared to the Monday
night into Tuesday evening period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The main issue for the period will be fog tonight into Sunday
morning. Observations were showing fog developing with the
visibility down to a half mile in Solon Springs to 5 miles in a
few spots as well. Light or calm winds will lead to more fog
overnight and we lower the visibility in most TAFs tonight. The
fog should lift by 14Z for most areas then VFR conditions are
expected through the day into the evening. There may be some
passing VFR ceilings tonight as seen over parts of northwest
Minnesota and some VFR cumulus that develops with heating today.
Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most through the
period with some higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds are expected to be at or below 15 knots today into
tonight. There may be some patchy fog in spots but it`s expected
to lift this morning.

Winds will be easterly on Monday and they will strengthen
through the day as the area will be between strong low pressure
over the Northern Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds
will strengthen further on Tuesday. Conditions will become
hazardous, mainly for smaller vessels Monday roughly from Silver
Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing. As winds increase Monday
night into Tuesday, hazardous conditions will become more
widespread.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde