897
FXUS63 KDMX 100833
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
333 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A few showers and rumbles of thunder possible today. Elevated
  winds possible with showers/storms.

* Possibly "top 10" spring day Saturday.

* Shower/storm chances return Sunday PM, and additional
  opportunities through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Exiting shortwave trough has left in its wake quieter and drier
conditions. With a relaxed surface pressure gradient and clear
skies, a few areas, namely low lying areas and river valleys, have
been able to develop fog. Not expected to become expansive as a
drier air mass continues to slowly advect in.

Today will see another shortwave trough traverse the region within
the NW flow aloft, bringing with it additional chances for a few
showers or rumbles of thunder. The core of this shortwave, and by
virtue strongest lift, will be displaced further north and east than
the one that passed through yesterday. Tied in with a drier near-
surface air mass, and confidence in shower/storm chances and
coverage is notably less. That said, HRRR/RAP soundings harken back
to Tuesday with deep inverted-V soundings and elevated storm bases.
Fortunately, shower/storm bases look to be on the order of about
6kft vs closer to 9kft on Tuesday, which allowed for more
opportunity for evaporative cooling processes to accelerate showers
to the surface. That said, would not find it unusual to see pockets
of elevated winds with showers/storms that do develop. Otherwise
generic thunderstorms.

Saturday continues to look like a wonderful day, with top-10
potential. As the shortwave trough exits, surface ridging and light
northwesterly winds combine to yield a day in the lower 70s with
ample sunshine.

A SW CONUS upper low begins to eject into the Plains Saturday,
helping return shower/storm chances Sunday PM and into early next
week. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in fair agreement
in the overall path of the upper cut-off low, generally eastward
across KS, but continue to differ in some of the detail. Euro and
its ensemble cohorts tend to be displaced just a bit more southward
with the upper low and are much more aggressive with dry air being
ushered in from the Dakotas and Canada. Whereas the GFS/GEFS are
displaced a bit more northward with the upper low and less aggressive
with the dry air from the north. Suffice it to say precipitation
chances return Sunday PM and linger through much of Monday, with
greatest question in northern areas.

Further into next week, additional chances for precipitation are
seen mid-late week, but it remains difficult to really sharpen the
broad NBM PoPs. Currently, it appears the greatest agreement is later
Wednesday into Thursday with the GFS/GEFS faster than the Euro and
its ensemble. Regardless, threat for severe appears low with
lackluster forecast wind fields and thermodynamic profiles. |

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A few lingering showers southeast through 08z with patchy fog
developing. FOD has already dropped to 1/4sm and expect MCW and
ALO to drop to 1 to 3sm by 10z, lifting around 13z. A few light
showers will move into the region aft 20z, but coverage remains
uncertain. Aft fog lifts, expect a VFR cig for all sites Friday.
/rev

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...REV