Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 251508
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1008 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions are expected through Tuesday area-wide. A
  Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the area for gusts
  up to 45 mph.

- Widespread rain is forecast today and tonight with amounts of
  1-2" possible along and east of the Mississippi River, and
  less in the western counties.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight.

- Blustery and colder on Tuesday with lingering showers.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Winds just off the deck found on our 12Z upper air sounding are
starting to mix down into the boundary layer a bit more this
past 1/2 hour. This remains a lower end advisory, but with 50kt
winds aloft, some 45 mph wind gusts remain a possibility the
next few hours, before the LLJ max shifts a bit farther east.
Precipitation is set to become more widespread through the
afternoon. Widespread rainfall remains forecast for late
afternoon and tonight, with the bulk of QPF in the eastern half
of the CWA.

No changes have been made to headlines at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

06z surface analysis depicted a strengthening surface low
across the Oklahoma panhandle, with a warm front extending out
of that to the east across Nebraska, western Iowa and northern
Missouri. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring
along the warm front, and ahead of the surface low with
strengthening WAA processed across Missouri into Oklahoma.
Across our area, all was quiet despite some weak radar returns
in east central Iowa and west central Illinois, the dry air in
place at the low levels was helping prevent precip from reaching
the ground. This is all to change in the next several hours.

Through the morning, look for increasing coverage of rain showers as
lift from the surface low, warm front and WAA aloft increase across
the area. As the trough responsible for this surface low becomes
more negatively tilted, it will bring an increase in divergence
aloft from a jet equatorial exit region. This will further increase
lift, bringing a more widespread moderate to heavy rain for areas
along and east of the Mississippi River. It will be a soaker with the
PWAT feed around 1.00-1.25", with the current QPF in these areas
ranging from about one to one and a half inches. Amounts near two
inches are a possibilty if some convection can break out, but this
is low confidence.

Winds will be an additional forecast challenge to today. Main
concern will focus on this morning as approaching rain showers will
have potential to mix down a 40-50 kt LLJ down to the surface. Many
CAMs are being a bit aggressive (eg NAMnest) on the degree of
boundary layer mixing, though the HREF mean does support a
period of wind gusts near to about advisory criteria up to the
Interstate 80 corridor in far eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois. In this package, I`ve added a couple of counties
including the Quad Cities metro to the advisory. Through the
day, winds will remain gusty but should subside somewhat as the
LLJ decreases in strength and rain becomes more stratiform vs.
convective.

For Tuesday, a surface cold front and upper level low will
traverse the area with rain chances lingering through the day.
Some snow could also mix in, though chances are higher mainly
in east central to northeast Iowa where colder temperatures will
be present through the vertical of the atmosphere. Highs will
be much cooler with values ranging from the low to mid 40s, and
should occur around midday before strengthening CAA with a cold
front sends temps lower during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Wednesday and Thursday...

The weather will improve for midweek as high pressure builds
across the Plains and Midwest. Temps will start out cool but
will improve with a return of southerly flow to the area.

Thursday on...

Southerly to southeasterly flow will draw in more mild conditions,
and eventually some moisture return. A return to above normal
temperatures is forecast at the end of the week, with 50s/60s
spreading over the area. Rain chances increase Friday through
Sunday night as well as several models suggest some short waves
embedded within zonal flow aloft in the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Conditions will deteriorate this morning as a strong system
moves into the region. Scattered rain showers will become more
widespread by midday, and will persist through early tonight.
The rain may be moderate to heavy at times, leading to MVFR/IFR
conditions. In addition, southeast winds will increase with
gusts around 30-35 kts. Stronger gusts near 40 kts will also be
possible, especially this morning with rain showers. Rain will
decrease in coverage this evening, but lingering moisture and
lift from a passing surface low will keep the MVFR/IFR (with low
potential for LIFR) conditions through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ067-068-078-
     089-099.
IL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ015>018-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck


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