Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
090 FXUS63 KDVN 281118 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 618 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening. Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, remains for areas along/south of Highway 34. - Active forecast remains through the long term, with near daily chances for precipitation after Monday. - Temperatures will remain above normal through midweek, trending towards normal for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Deep upper wave continues to slowly push northeast through the central United States, becoming negatively tilted through the day. Surface low associated with the system will start to slowly traverse northeast through Sunday. Stationary boundary that has been draped over northern portions of our CWA will remain in place through much of the day, as the surface cold front grows stronger and pushes through our area. This cold front will be the feature to watch, as it will bring the necessary surface forcing to see showers and storms through the day, especially in the afternoon/evening. Ahead of the cold front is a favorable environment for some strong to severe storms. Although, confidence remains low. In either case, we will still see a line of showers and storms push through the area late in the afternoon and evening. These will also bring a brief period of heavy rainfall, but the flash flood threat remains low for the area tomorrow. Instability will be low-moderate in area, with the shear being the main driver for storm organization and severity. The extent to which we see showers/storms through the day will either decrease or increase chances for severe weather. Guidance is favoring showers and storms through much of the day, which would limit the severe potential. The main thing that would help get severe storms in this scenario would be the overall forcing produced by this dynamic storm system. Thus, we will not rule out the chance for severe. If we do see severe storms, the primary threats will be severe winds and hail, with tornadoes being the secondary threat. Confidence remains low on the severe threat tomorrow, but it will be something that we will continue to message the potential for. Thus, remain weather ready tomorrow. The SPC has areas along/south of Highway 34 in a Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk for severe weather, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) for the remainder of the area. It is important to note that there has been a southerly trend in the severe threat, especially in the last 24 hours. Tonight... After the line of convection moves through tomorrow evening, much of the area should remain dry and breezy after midnight. Given some bouts of energy continuing to hit our area after the main wave, I wouldn`t be shocked to see a few showers after the main line of convection passes. Some guidance is hinting at this, but confidence is low. This will be the end of the severe threat for Sunday though, with temperatures dropping into low 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Looking at the whole long term, it would seem that Monday has the best chance to be the only dry day of the week. The pattern goes zonal briefly after the system passes on Sunday, but this will be short-lived. A few disturbances are forecast to pass through the flow midweek, with the potential for a more potent wave to impact the area Friday/Saturday. Much of the week, above average temperatures will be seen, with most in the mid-upper 70s. Towards the end of the week, temperatures moderate near normal, as we will be socked in clouds and rain showers. Tuesday, an upper wave will pass through the area, with a relatively strong vort max passing through late in the day. Guidance is in general agreement on seeing showers/storms with frontal passage that evening/night, but there are some differences with moisture content. Timing is generally captured well amongst guidance, with them also indicating that this will move through quickly. Confidence is low on severe potential, but will continue to monitor as more short term guidance comes in. After that system, we will start to see a potent wave deepen over the Rockies mid-late week. We will see a few leading impulses pass through the area, leading to occasional showers/storms for the remainder of the week. This will be a wet period, with the potential to see a bit of rain. While it is too soon to figure out the flash flood potential, it is safe to say that we can expect some rises along area rivers if we see this persistent rain. The parent wave developing is the one that has our attention though. There is plenty of uncertainty with this, as well as major timing differences amongst guidance. Although, all long term guidance shows this system. If this wave deepens enough and we get that negative tilt upon arrival, we may see the potential for strong to severe storms late in the week. Although, it is too soon to say for sure. So, just be mindful and stay up to date on our forecasts! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Variable flight conditions are being seen throughout, with MVFR to IFR taking over within the next few hours, as moderate rainfall and lower cigs move in. We will generally see cigs between 1000-3000 ft, with some areas seeing between 700-900 ft. Vis will generally be above 5-6 SM, aside from areas seeing heavier showers. These conditions will continue through much of the day, with cigs improving after 18z. Winds will remain out of the southwest, gusting upwards to 20-25 KTs at times. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel/Speck AVIATION...Gunkel