Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
941 FNUS21 KWNS 250615 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$