143
ACUS01 KWNS 070511
SWODY1
SPC AC 070510

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley
today. A few tornadoes, potentially strong, large to very large
hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

...Ohio Valley...

Plains upper trough will eject northeast across the mid/upper MS
Valley early in the period as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates from
northern OK into western IL by 18z, then into extreme southwest MI
by early evening. Primary corridor of mid-level height falls will
spread north of this jet, though 30-60m, 12hr falls are expected as
far south as I-70 across IN/OH during the expected convective cycle.
In response to this short wave, southwesterly LLJ will shift into
IL/IN by 18z, then into the mid OH Valley by late afternoon. This
evolution will encourage considerable moistening early in the period
and buoyancy will increase markedly by mid day within a strongly
sheared, but deep southwesterly flow regime.

Current thinking is ongoing convection, associated with this trough,
will propagate into the mid MS Valley by daybreak, then advance
downstream with some propensity for weakening during the morning.
However, boundary-layer heating after this initial activity will
result in a modest-strongly unstable air mass by early afternoon.
Convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings warm
through the 70s to near 80F, and isolated-scattered thunderstorms
should evolve along the southern fringe of the main jet core.
Forecast soundings across the OH Valley exhibit favorable
shear/buoyancy for supercells, especially given the steep lapse
rates. Storms that evolve within this environment will likely remain
discrete, or perhaps evolve into some clusters. Tornadoes, a few
strong, are possible along with very large hail. Some damaging winds
are also possible.

...TX...

While the primary upper trough will have ejected well northeast of
the southern Plains by afternoon, trailing surface boundary across
TX may provide adequate convergence for a few storms later today.
Strong surface heating is forecast across western into south-central
TX. With readings expected to approach 90F near this boundary,
convective temperatures may be breached allowing isolated
thunderstorms to evolve within a strongly sheared environment. If
so, a few supercells could evolve and large hail would be the
primary concern.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/07/2024

$$