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000
ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA
INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley.
A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of
Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the
east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the
central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48
hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface
cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across
the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly
influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early
afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm
development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN
Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west
across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established
by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an
approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across
parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the
Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region
in the wake of Tuesday night`s convection. The north/northeast track
of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s
dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning
ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may
occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and
intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of
subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air
mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with
decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is
likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH.
Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells
within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado
risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot
mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by
late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable
by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far
western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm
and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley,
thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing
displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a
conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is
forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat.

...Tennessee Valley region...
A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night`s convection is
expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the
eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm
development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially
across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in
redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While
low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft,
combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon,
should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant
hail/wind risk.

...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas...
An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast
to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls
over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will
strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of
a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley -
especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens.
Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the
High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection
regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the
00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round
is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the
cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS.
For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to
support organized cells with a severe hail risk.

..Moore.. 04/16/2024

$$