Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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310 FXUS63 KEAX 300733 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 233 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms possible this evening into tonight, damaging winds and large hail the main threats...a isolated tornado can not be ruled out. - Additional rounds of storms expected Wednesday evening through Thursday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe Wednesday night. - Several rounds of rainfall on top of already saturated soil will make flash flooding and additional river flooding a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Another period of active weather looks to begin late today into tonight. High pressure over the area early this morning will quickly slide southeast of the area with WAA getting underway by late morning. The strong WAA will aid in driving highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. It will also help to pump moisture back into the area with dewpoint rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s this evening. Late this afternoon into the evening a mid-level will move from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will forecast a cold front into the area with storms developing out ahead of it. These storms will have the potential to be severe as they will be moving into an environment of moderate/strong instability of 2000- 2500J/Kg of MUCAPE. Effective shear will be around 40-45kts. Given these parameters, severe weather with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. The tornado threat appears low at this time mainly due to weaker 0/1Km shear and veered surface winds. Heavy rain will also be possible with PWATs in the 1.25"-1.50" range however, the system should be progressive enough today to mitigate anything more than very localized flooding. The front is expected to sag south of the area overnight and will remain there for most of the day on Wednesday. A easterly fetch at the surface will cool conditions a bit with highs in the 70s. Also, on Wednesday a upper level trough will dig through the northern Rockies. As we get into late in the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening, a series of lead shortwave look to eject out ahead of the main trough into the local area. The surface boundary that was south of the forecast area will begin to lift slowly north into the southern CWA as a LLJ develops and nose into the area. With, several shortwaves, a nearly stationary boundary and a LLJ providing lift and pumping moisture into the area, on top of recent wet antecedent conditions flooding becomes a major concern particularly Wednesday night into Thursday. PWATs will remain between 1.25"-1.50" through the period. Late Thursday, the upper level trough finally pushes through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and puts enough of a push on the cold front to finally shift it south and east of the area. All told 1-3" of rain is expected with locally higher amounts possible. A brief respite from the rain is expected as surface high pressure moves into the area for Thursday night into Friday. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid 70s. However, as we get into Friday night another trough will move from the central Rockies through the central/northern Plains forcing a cold front into the area. This will allow another round of thunderstorms and heavy rain to develop over the area. Storms are expected to last through Saturday morning when before the front pushes east of the area. Additional rounds of rain will again pose a flooding threat. Surface high pressure will bring another brief period of dry weather Saturday night into Sunday before a mid-level trough with a closed low in the base tracks across the area Sunday night into Monday which will bring yet another round of storms to the area. Given the closed low nature of this system it may be slow moving which may provide a prolonged period of rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR conds are expected thru most of the TAF pd. Sct-bkn clouds around 10kft will affect the TAF sites thru 15Z before just sct high clouds are expected thru 00Z. Btn 00Z-01Z...a cold front will approach the TAF sites with thunderstorms developing out ahead of them. These storms are expected to be scattered in nature so have opted for a VCTS at this time for the pd btn 00Z-04Z with a bkn cloud deck around 5kft. Aft 04Z cigs will sct out as storms come to an end. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10kts to begin the TAF pd but will increase btn 15Z-16Z to 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Winds will wkn an veer as the front approaches btn 00Z-01Z becmg SSW around 10-15kts. The frontal passage will occur late in the pd veering winds to the N a at MCI and STJ and to the west at IXD and MKC. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73