Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 271121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Quiet weather with warming temperatures can be expected today and
Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions return to the area on Friday,
lasting through the weekend. Areas of blowing dust will be the
primary impacts each afternoon. The next storm system will move
through Sunday and Monday bringing with it moisture and increasing
precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. After an active
stretch of weather over the past 3-4 days, a quiet weather pattern
will settle in across the region, lasting through Saturday.

Long wave troughing thats being locked in over the region will
progress east on Wednesday, with ridging aloft building in over the
Desert Southwest. This means quiet and dry weather conditions, along
with warming temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon will top
out in the middle to upper 60s across the desert lowlands. Further
warming into the middle to upper 70s for Thursday through Saturday.
High temperatures for El Paso and vicinity will hover around the 80
degree mark Thursday through Saturday. Winds today and Thursday look
to remain relatively light for this time of year.

Southwesterly flow aloft will return on Friday as the next storm
lurks off the coast of California. Pressure at the surface will
respond to increasing cyclonic curvature aloft with lee-side surface
cyclogenesis formation over the Front Range of southeast Colorado
with the accompanying surface trough across New Mexico. This will
promote breezy to windy conditions on Friday and Saturday. NBM
75th percentile (verified well over the past few weeks with recent
wind storms) probabilities are showing winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph during the Friday afternoon/evening timeframe
with a very similar solution for Saturday. Winds as of now look to
remain sub- advisory. However, it will still be windy which could
ultimately promote blowing dust and the subsequent impacts from
that.

As the storm system moves onshore during the Sunday timeframe,
windy conditions will remain in place across the region. The
global ensembles and their respected suites and deterministic
solutions remain bearish, so we will continue to watch this trend
as we head into the weekend. Moisture and rain chances will also
increase during the Sunday-Monday timeframe as the system digs
along International Border of California/Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies FEW-SCT150,
becoming SKC by 14-16Z. Winds light (4-7 knots), becoming 10-15
knots with gust 20-25 knots out the W/WNW after 17Z

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to ELEVATED through the weekend
predominately for the desert lowlands of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas.

For Wednesday, long wave troughing that`s been locked in over the
region the past few days will progress east with deep-layer
northwesterly flow overspreading New Mexico and west Texas today.
Responding northwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph can
be expected today, along with Min RHs of 12-15% spanning a few hours
during peak heating this afternoon. These Critical RH values will
exist for portions of NMZ112, TXZ055, and TXZ056. Given the sensible
meteorological conditions overlaying marginally receptive desert
shrub/grass-like fuels, low-end ELEVATED fire weather conditions can
be expected for the desert lowlands of west Texas and southern New
Mexico this afternoon and early evening. Fire Weather conditions
will remain LOW for NMZ110, NMZ111, and NMZ112 this afternoon as Min
RH values remain above 20% and the current state of the fuels.

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end ELEVATED on Thursday.
Ridging with with slight southwesterly flow aloft will return to the
region. Min RHs will become Critical for all the desert lowlands and
Gila/Sacramento Mtn foothills Thursday afternoons. Elevations above
7000 feet will see Min RHs between 16-25 percent. Winds will be low-
end breezy out of the south/southwest at 7-15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  44  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  37  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               68  39  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               62  34  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               37  24  49  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    63  36  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              55  35  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   65  35  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                63  34  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  44  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65  32  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  36  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  39  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   68  39  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             65  36  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           65  42  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65  34  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    68  34  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 65  38  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                63  35  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  29  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                48  28  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  26  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  55  31  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                62  35  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63  32  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  28  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   60  32  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    63  34  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               58  34  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  35  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   63  34  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  63  35  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           64  36  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               59  39  71  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers


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