Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271121
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Quiet weather with warming temperatures can be expected today and
Thursday. Breezy to windy conditions return to the area on Friday,
lasting through the weekend. Areas of blowing dust will be the
primary impacts each afternoon. The next storm system will move
through Sunday and Monday bringing with it moisture and increasing
precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. After an active
stretch of weather over the past 3-4 days, a quiet weather pattern
will settle in across the region, lasting through Saturday.
Long wave troughing thats being locked in over the region will
progress east on Wednesday, with ridging aloft building in over the
Desert Southwest. This means quiet and dry weather conditions, along
with warming temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon will top
out in the middle to upper 60s across the desert lowlands. Further
warming into the middle to upper 70s for Thursday through Saturday.
High temperatures for El Paso and vicinity will hover around the 80
degree mark Thursday through Saturday. Winds today and Thursday look
to remain relatively light for this time of year.
Southwesterly flow aloft will return on Friday as the next storm
lurks off the coast of California. Pressure at the surface will
respond to increasing cyclonic curvature aloft with lee-side surface
cyclogenesis formation over the Front Range of southeast Colorado
with the accompanying surface trough across New Mexico. This will
promote breezy to windy conditions on Friday and Saturday. NBM
75th percentile (verified well over the past few weeks with recent
wind storms) probabilities are showing winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph during the Friday afternoon/evening timeframe
with a very similar solution for Saturday. Winds as of now look to
remain sub- advisory. However, it will still be windy which could
ultimately promote blowing dust and the subsequent impacts from
that.
As the storm system moves onshore during the Sunday timeframe,
windy conditions will remain in place across the region. The
global ensembles and their respected suites and deterministic
solutions remain bearish, so we will continue to watch this trend
as we head into the weekend. Moisture and rain chances will also
increase during the Sunday-Monday timeframe as the system digs
along International Border of California/Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR conditions expected through the period with skies FEW-SCT150,
becoming SKC by 14-16Z. Winds light (4-7 knots), becoming 10-15
knots with gust 20-25 knots out the W/WNW after 17Z
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to ELEVATED through the weekend
predominately for the desert lowlands of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas.
For Wednesday, long wave troughing that`s been locked in over the
region the past few days will progress east with deep-layer
northwesterly flow overspreading New Mexico and west Texas today.
Responding northwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph can
be expected today, along with Min RHs of 12-15% spanning a few hours
during peak heating this afternoon. These Critical RH values will
exist for portions of NMZ112, TXZ055, and TXZ056. Given the sensible
meteorological conditions overlaying marginally receptive desert
shrub/grass-like fuels, low-end ELEVATED fire weather conditions can
be expected for the desert lowlands of west Texas and southern New
Mexico this afternoon and early evening. Fire Weather conditions
will remain LOW for NMZ110, NMZ111, and NMZ112 this afternoon as Min
RH values remain above 20% and the current state of the fuels.
Fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end ELEVATED on Thursday.
Ridging with with slight southwesterly flow aloft will return to the
region. Min RHs will become Critical for all the desert lowlands and
Gila/Sacramento Mtn foothills Thursday afternoons. Elevations above
7000 feet will see Min RHs between 16-25 percent. Winds will be low-
end breezy out of the south/southwest at 7-15 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 68 44 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 61 37 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 68 39 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 62 34 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 37 24 49 38 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 63 36 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 55 35 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 65 35 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 63 34 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 66 44 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 65 32 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 67 36 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 59 39 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 68 39 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 65 36 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 65 42 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 65 34 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 68 34 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 65 38 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 63 35 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 51 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 48 28 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 48 26 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 55 31 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 62 35 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 63 32 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 55 28 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 60 32 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 63 34 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 58 34 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 60 35 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 63 34 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 63 35 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 64 36 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 59 39 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers