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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 111345
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Tract 4 RX...BLM-ROSWELL
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
745 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry and warm conditions through the weekend with winds increasing as an
upper trough approaches the region.  Today will see the lightest winds of
the next 5 days with temperatures warming to around 70 degrees and
RH`s into the lower to mid teens.  Expect highs to continue warming
Friday another 5 to 8 degrees but with stronger winds coming from the
south to southeast.  Monday could be an extreme fire weather day
as winds could approach 40 mph sustained with very dry RH`s.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 3 to 8 mph becoming west 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph shifting to the west around
                    13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (98000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (127900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         4         5
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............46        60        69        69
RH..............37        24        17        13
20 FT wind......E 3G6     SE 6G12   W 12G18    W 13G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1700      7900      11100     11100
Transport wind..SE 9      S 13      W 13      W 13
Haines index....4         3         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14        98        128       128
Ventrate Cat....POOR      GOOD      VYGD      VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 4 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (98300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........5            4            6
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............67           53           48
RH..............14           25           25
20 FT wind......W 7G14       W 5G8        NW 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....8900         500          500
Transport wind..W 10         W 9          W 12
Haines index....4            4            5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..98           5            5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD         POOR         POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph shifting to the south 8
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then increasing to around 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph increasing to south 21 to 26
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12800 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (248800 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........19        8         32        42
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............44        58        72        78
RH..............28        21        13        11
20 FT wind......W 6G10    SE 8G17   S 14G26   S 18G29
Mix hgt (ft)....1600      1600      11900     11900
Transport wind..W 10      W 10      S 21      S 26
Haines index....5         5         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13        13        249       267
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Matthew Thomas
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410311.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mdthomas@blm.gov