Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
332 FNUS74 KEPZ 012336 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 536 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Trending warmer and drier, but with a bit less wind Thursday through Saturday. A very dry west flow pattern will allow for steady temperatures warmer than average. Relative humidity will run low, and trend lower, with minimums near 10 percent and quite poor recoveries. Winds will slacken a bit with only marginally breezy conditions through the week. We are watching the Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday timeframe for increased winds leading to Critical fire weather and Red Flag Warnings. .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........13 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest around 10 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 11 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (140400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........8 2 6 6 21 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............46 56 63 68 70 RH..............38 27 18 15 13 20 ft wind......NW 7 NW 7 W 8 W 8 SW 10 20 ft wind gust.13 14 16 16 20 Mix hgt (ft)....800 6400 8400 10400 11400 Transport wind..NW 13 W 11 W 11 W 12 W 12 Haines index....2 3 4 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..34 59 79 110 140 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR GOOD VYGD VYGD .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 38. Max humidity........50 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph in the evening and overnight becoming light. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (135300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (6200 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........23 15 7 5 5 6 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............66 55 49 45 42 39 RH..............16 25 33 38 43 48 20 ft wind......SW 11 SW 11 W 10 W 6 W 6 W 4 20 ft wind gust.22 22 22 13 13 9 Mix hgt (ft)....10400 1400 600 600 500 500 Transport wind..W 18 W 18 W 15 W 15 W 12 W 12 Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..135 45 7 7 6 6 Ventrate Cat....VYGD FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 12 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (29500 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (174500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........3 3 5 7 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............38 53 64 70 RH..............50 31 15 11 20 FT wind......W 4G9 W 7G14 SW 9G21 SW 12G22 Mix hgt (ft)....700 3700 9600 11700 Transport wind..W 8 W 8 SW 13 W 17 Haines index....4 4 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 30 110 175 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 9 mph. .SUNDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest winds around 12 mph. .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 18 mph. $$ Forecaster...ARONSON Requested by...SILVER CITY RANGER DISTRICT Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412655.3/EPZ .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV