861
FXUS64 KEWX 060604
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
104 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 428 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

We have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for south-central
Texas. The main complex of severe storms has moved into south Texas,
into the Corpus Christi county warning area. Across south-central
Texas isolated showers and thunderstorm will be possible through
sunset. A strong storm or two could be possible, producing sub-severe
hail and wind gusts. Activity should diminish after sunset with loss
of heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS has been the main focus
for ongoing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This boundary has
remained relatively stationary through the morning and early
afternoon, generally intersecting the CWA in half from east to west.
Storm development began late morning and is expected to continue
into the late afternoon before peak heating diminishes and the
boundary layer stabilizes. Some storms have been severe with large
hail the main threat, although damaging wind gusts or an isolated
tornado are still possible until storms end. Due to the slow moving
nature of these, heavy rain has also been seen and a few flood
advisories have been issued as some locations have received 1 to 2
inches of rain, up to 4 inches, in a short amount of time. Luckily
where the heaviest rain had fallen storms have finally shifted
slightly south and east out of that heaviest axis of precipitation.
As activity winds down this evening, low level moisture and light
southeasterly flow will contribute to fog development tonight into
Monday morning. Patchy dense fog will be possible, with HREF
probabilities bringing the lowest visibility over the southern
Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Low ceilings will once
again develop as well which will keep temperatures warm across the
area. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

Monday will be another humid and warm day for most of South Central
Texas with highs from the mid 80s over the Hill Country where cloud
cover will linger longest to highs in the upper 90s along the Rio
Grande. A few additional light showers or an isolated non-severe
storm are possible in the afternoon in the northeastern portions of
the CWA, but the better forcing will be to the north so only have
about a 20 percent PoP in at this time. Another warm night with
areas of fog expected on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be nearly zonal for the start of
the long term. The low level flow will continue from the southeast.
Dry weather will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
climb to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the Rio
Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through South
Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance for rain
to the northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it will bring
relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Short-term model trends seem to favor some streamer showers or
drizzle on either side of daybreak, with maybe some sprinkles
continuing into the early afternoon. Will focus on the daybreak
period for lowest CIGs and VSBYS, with VCSH to show a hint. When we
get closer to daybreak, we`ll make a commitment to either a tempo or
prevailing group depending on the character of the radar returns we
expect to see. A decent LLJ is depicted on VAD wind profiles and in
the mid cloud layers on satellite imagery, so will hold with mainly
IFR CIGs close to daybreak and expect any dips into LIFR or worse
categories to be short-lived and localized. Much of the day we`ll see
the conveyor belt of focused low level moisture over Central TX as a
large upper low ejects NE out of the Central Rockies into the
plains. Thus will hang onto the MVFR daytime cigs for an hour or two
longer than what was indicated in earlier TAFs. The low level moist
layer never really gets a chance to mix out today, so a return to
MVFR skies should occur over I-35 sometime in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  91  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  91  72  91 /  10   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  90  71  91 /  10   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74 100  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  89  72  91 /  10   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  92  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  90  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           73  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18