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000
FXUS63 KFGF 240922 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Updated...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening for northwest and west central Minnesota

- Rainy weather Friday to Sunday. 30-50% chance for more than 1
  inch in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota over
  the 3 day period.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

High pressure will be over the Red River valley this morning
moving east thru the day. Light/variable wind to start today,
becoming south-southwest 5 to 10 mph this afternoon as the high
moves east. Expect full sun today. NBM 4.1 has been running 2-3
degrees too cool the past few days on highs, and thus WFO ABR
coordinated a rise in temps using NBM 50th percentile for highs
today. Thus made temps reach the low 60s in NW/WC Minnesota to
mid 60s RRV and eastern ND. Dry airmass in place, so looking at
min RH values in the 21-26 percent range all areas. Mixing of
dry air aloft to the sfc may well send the RH values into the
teens in some areas. Winds are light enough, so no critical fire
weather conditions will occur, but low enough RH values will
exist for near critical fire weather conditions in NW/WC MN with
SPS being issued based on what MIFC (Minnesota Interagency Fire
Center) would like in the early greenup phase.

Tonight into Thursday will see south-southeast winds increase in
speed and tonight will be a much milder night with all areas
well above freezing for lows and highs Thursday upper 60s to mid
70s (using NBM/NBM50 blend per collaboration). Dew points were
left along and used NBM4.1 and with the increased in moisture
just enough to prevent RH from falling into the critical fire
weather range (20-25 pct). Winds will be there as tight pressure
gradient develops and 925 mb winds 30-35 kts should ensure a
windy day...with the Red River valley seeing a favorable south-
southeast wind that may push winds into advisory range.

Scattered high clouds Thursday, increasing clouds Thursday night
into Friday ahead of 500 mb wave and sfc low that will be near
Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border at 12z Friday. Moisture feed
spreads north with highest rain chances (70-90%) Friday
afternoon and Friday night and slowly diminishing pops Saturday.

Next 500 mb wave will take a similar track, though latest
enembles indicate some differences in track with a more SE track
into SE MN meaning main rainfall is SE ND/WC MN vs 00z
operational runs of ECMWF/GFS taking upper low more into the Red
River valley and NW MN 06z Mon period for more widespread
rainfall chances.

Probability of 1 inch or more of rainfall in the 72 hour period
from 12z Fri to 12z Mon is 30-50% in SE ND/WC MN to around 10%
along the Canadian border.

Southwest flow aloft remains thru all of next week. Some low
pops for showers exist Tue-Thu before next 500 mb wave moves
into the Nevada and Idaho by 12z Fri of next week. Well beyond
day 7 Ensembles indicate a more northerly position of upper
low and a track more west and thus putting E ND/NW MN in the
warm sector with potentially increased chances of thunderstorms.
This is May 3rd/4th.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest
MN, though there is a chance (less than 20%) for low stratus
and light ground fog to develop in the vicinity of KBJI before
sunrise Wednesday morning. Surface ridging shifting east is
already resulting in lighter winds with light and variable/calm
winds through Wednesday morning sunrise. Winds eventually
increase to the 7-11kt range from the south-southwest as
surface low pressure builds to the west and a layer of 6-10 KFT
AGL CU may develop during the midday/afternoon period (mainly in
ND). Winds eventually shift to the southeast Wednesday evening
to the 7-14kt range in eastern ND (highest near KDVL) as
surface gradient increase.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR