Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261115
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
615 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor impacts are expected today as additional accumulating
  snow will develop and combine with gusty winds to create areas
  of significantly reduced visibility.

- Locally near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  tomorrow afternoon (20% chance) in northeast North Dakota and
  far northwest Minnesota.

- There is a low chance for minor impacts due to snow and
  freezing rain Friday into Saturday (20% chance). Uncertainties
  in precipitation type are the reason for the low probability.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Light snow continues across the area. Impacts continue to
improve this morning in the southern Red River Valley, so the
Winter Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 7 AM. The
advisory remains in effect to the east for additional snow
today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The bulk of the heavy snow has come to an end in our area.
Right now, the main question is how much additional snow we
receive from weak 850-700mb frontogenesis. Profiles aloft are
luckily very warm and for the most part away from the DGZ.
Having said that, there is an area of instability within the DGZ
just above 700mb that may enhance snowfall rates along this
baroclinic zone. For this reason, half inch per hour snowfall
rates cannot be ruled out today. Given the fairly weak mesoscale
forcing, this is unlikely to be the norm. Still, with falling
snow and continued elevated winds, significantly reduced
visibility associated with this band cannot be ruled out. For
this reason, the Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a
Winter Weather Advisory. Isolated whiteout conditions cannot be
ruled out within heavier snowfall rates today, particulary in
northern Minnesota where temperatures will be coldest. New
snowfall accumulations should not exceed 2 inches today, with
the bulk of additional accumulations falling below an inch. In
the most extreme reasonable worst case (which involves a
prolonged heavier snowband), 4 inches cannot be ruled out (10%
chance).

Snow should begin to diminish across the region through this
afternoon and evening, with light snow lingering in the Lake of
the Woods area through the overnight hours. There is the
potential for continued visibility issues with this, but
confidence is low in how severe this would be. If conditions are
worse, an advisory extension cannot be ruled out.

As we progress into tomorrow, the low begins to finally move
away, giving us some elevated westerly winds across the region.
With the potential for some solid mixing on the clearing side of
this low, relative humidity values may fall into the 20s in some
locations, particularly in northeastern North Dakota. This would
be heavily dependent on mixing, of which the probability for
full mixing is low. With the elevated winds there is the
potential for some localized near critical fire weather
conditions in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota,
but the probability for this is low (20% chance).

The remainder of the period has limited signals for impactful
weather. Another winter system does move through the region
Friday into Saturday. Wide spread in temperature profiles and
intensity of the low drive up uncertainty quite high, as the
potential of multiple precipitation types are high. Higher
impacts will likely be mainly tied to freezing rain as opposed
to snow as there is a very low chance for heavy snow to impact
the region. Per clusters, the highest impact solution involves a
scenario of freezing rain and snow combining to create hazardous
road conditions. This is only within 20% of solutions, so there
is merely a 20% chance for minor impacts but not much more.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Winds and low ceilings will be the primary aviation impacts for
the TAF period. MVFR to VFR ceilings will continue across the
area. Guidance does have improvements to VFR across all TAF
sites by mid-day, however confidence in this scenario is low, so
high-end MVFR ceilings will be retained for now. Snow will cause
impacts to visibility today, although how severe is too
uncertain at this time. At the moment, the worst visibilities
observed has been 2SM with falling snow. Winds will remain gusty
through the entire TAF period and primarily shifting to the
northwest.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NDZ039-
     049-052-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ003-
     022-027-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ006-
     009-016-017-023-024-028-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     MNZ030-031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux


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