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000
FXUS63 KGID 112201
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
501 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least until Monday, fire weather remains our primary
  (probably our only?) hazardous weather concern, but to
  varying degrees by day. Please see separate FIRE WEATHER
  section for a detailed breakdown focused on Friday-Monday.

- The primary "big story" Fri-Sun will be a pronounced warm-up,
  with the first 80+ temps of the year for most of our coverage
  area (some southern spots already have hit 80 this year) still
  on track this weekend.

- Although our forecast remains dry until Monday at this time,
  there are subtle hints that a few rogue showers/thunderstorms
  MIGHT try popping up with peak heating Sat afternoon
  (something to keep an eye on)

- Mon-Tues are still by far our main concern for potentially
  higher-impact weather. We`re still 4-5 days out so plenty of
  finer details yet to resolve, but there still appears to be a
  severe thunderstorm threat (especially Mon evening-overnight)
  and the entire area will likely see strong gradient winds both
  days given the intense nature of the surface low.

- Beyond the Mon-Tues system: Odds currently favor a mainly dry
  forecast Wed-Thurs, and also a cool-down, with highs projected
  to cool back down into the 50s/60s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

-- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE VERSUS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE (issued this AM):

- In the shorter term (next few days): nothing significant,
  just the usual fairly minor tweaks to temps, winds etc.

- In the longer term:
1) Rain/thunderstorm chances (PoPs) for especially Mon evening-
Tues trended upward (now as high as 60-80% mainly late Mon
night).

2) Although of the lower confidence variety given it`s still 6
days away, high temps for Wednesday jumped up a good 4-7
degrees, (now upper 60s-mid 70s most places), as the arrival of
cooler air appears to have delayed a bit.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW/HIGHLIGHTS (chronological order, but
 with more details geared toward to the first 48 hours through
 Saturday daytime):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 PM:
Maybe other than wind speeds peaking slightly higher (especially
early-mid afternoon), today has shaken out pretty much exactly
as advertised. Under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies (a
batch of high clouds currently passing through mainly our
southwestern half), moderately-strong winds have been the main
story, with much of the afternoon featuring sustained speeds at
least 25-30 MPH/gusts at least 30-45 MPH (overall-strongest in
the northeast half of our CWA). Fortunately, a GRADUAL downturn
in wind speeds has already taken place, as the surface pressure
gradient slowly weakens from west-to-east on the backside of an
upper trough diving southeastward through Midwestern states just
to our east. High temps are on track to top out 60-65 most
places. Fire-weather wise, despite a rather concerning
environment for wildfires, we have (thus far) been spared any
notable fire starts (although satellite clearly shows a fire
ongoing BARELY south of our CWA in Ellis County KS).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
This is clearly going to be the coldest night of the entire
7-day, as we are looking at a fairly ideal radiational cooling
setup featuring eventually very light winds, clear skies and dry
air in place. By 9-10 PM, wind speeds will already be down
around 10 MPH or less, with very light speeds only around 5 MPH
expected late in the night as a roughly 1022 millibar high
pressure center settles right over us. If anything, low temps
were nudged down a degree, but overall little change with low
30s most areas, and some upper 20s likely in far north/west
counties such as Valley/Dawson. NOTE: we are probably still a
week away from starting to issue any Frost/Freeze products.

- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
The morning starts with light winds area-wide but especially the
western half of our CWA will become breezy late morning and
especially afternoon as winds flip around to out of the south
(sustained speeds around 15 MPH/gusts 20-25 MPH west...but a
good 5 MPH weaker than this in counties east of Highway 281).
Temps jump about 10 degrees versus today, with most places near
70, but mid 70s more likely far south-southwest.

- FRIDAY NIGHT:
A milder night, as light but steady south-southeast breezes
mainly 5-10 MPH help hold up lows a good 10-15 degrees higher
than tonight (most areas aimed low-mid 40s).

- SATURDAY DAYTIME-EVENING:
Our official forecast remains dry, BUT this bears watching as a
weak upper wave will be working across our region, with enough
forcing/instability to MAYBE pops a few isolated, non-severe
thunderstorms late afternoon-early evening time frame (higher-
res models such as NAMNest especially do hint at this).
Otherwise, high confidence in the first 80+ temps of the year
for most of our CWA (including Tri Cities), as we are calling
for low-mid 80s most areas, and upper 80s in our southern-most
KS zones. It will likely become fairly breezy in mainly our
southern/southeast counties (gusts 20-30 MPH), but lighter winds
north/west closer to a surface trough axis.

- SUNDAY:
This will be another seasonably-warm day (highs mid-upper 80s
and a 90 not out of the question especially far south-southwest.
It`s a high confidence dry day under upper ridging. Also of
note: this is probably the lightest wind day of the next
several, with even gusts mainly under 20 MPH.

- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
In short, these are really the MAIN DAYS of concern. Although
models will surely continue to vary a bit with their solutions
as this draws closer in time, latest ECMWF/GFS are in overall-
decent agreement bringing another powerful, nearly vertically
stacked low pressure system into the Central Plains Mon-Mon
night, and it gradually departing Tues-Tues night. If the
projected surface low intensity around 985 millibars remains
remotely on track, intense winds (gusts 45+ MPH) will be a given
both ahead of the system Mon (out of the south-southeast) and
behind the system Tuesday (out of the west-northwest). Of
course, a severe thunderstorm threat is also very possible, as
although the "main show" is favored to remain slightly to our
south (not to mention that any later arrival of the system could
spare us from a surface-based severe threat somewhat),
especially Mon evening-overnight could feature a severe storm
threat, and cannot argue with the 15% severe probs on latest SPC
Day 5 outlook.

- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
In the wake of the early-week system, this looks like a MAINLY
dry time frame, but not guaranteed dry either as another system
could brush by just to our north and will kick a decent cold
front southward across our region, currently favoring the Wed
night time frame. Turning cooler, but to what degree somewhat in
question. As mentioned at the top, temp forecast for Wed has
climbed back up, with the main cooler push now slated for Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with clear
skies through most of the period, with the exception of a few
cirrus clouds moving across the area late this afternoon into
this evening.

Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest and very gusty this
afternoon, with sustained winds of 20-25 kts and gusts of 30-35
kts (perhaps slightly greater at KGRI). Winds will diminish this
evening at both sites, probably a little faster at KEAR than at
KGRI (where winds gusting to 20 kts will be possible well into
the evening). Overnight tonight and early Friday morning, winds
will be light (5-8 kts) before becoming southerly at 8-10 kts
late Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

- FIRE WEATHER OVERVIEW FOCUSED ON THE NEXT 4 DAYS (FRIDAY-
  MONDAY):
Although there are fortunately no "high confidence" critical
setups (such as today`s was), Friday, Saturday, and Monday
afternoons all feature a decent chance for at least near-
critical thresholds to be met, and Saturday (mainly in KS) and
Monday (mainly west of Highway 281) bear watching for POSSIBLE
outright-critical conditions...although admittedly there are
some question marks regarding low-level moisture and resultant
relative humidity (RH) (especially for Monday).

- FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
This appears to be one of those "close call" days, as we now
have solidly near-critical wind/RH thresholds forecast now
mainly within KS zones and in Neb counties along and especially
west of Highway 281 as winds flip around to out of the south. RH
is forecast to drop down to right around the 20% critical
threshold, but at least for now, our wind gusts are forecast to
fall SLIGHTLY short of the 25+ MPH critical criteria, but not by
much, with gusts of 20-24 MPH likely, especially in our far
western counties. If wind speeds "overachieve" our forecast by
even a few MPH, at least localized critical conditions could
materialize.

- SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
To be clear, there is still some uncertainty regarding
especially the dewpoint (and thus RH) forecast, so stay tuned
for adjustments. As it currently stands, mainly the southeast
1/3 to 1/3 of our CWA are most likely to meet near-critical
thresholds, with MAYBE our KS zones a bit more favored for at
least brief critical. Dewpoint will be on the rise (into at
least the 30s/40s), but this will also be overall-warmest day of
the year so far in our area (widespread 80s), driving down RH
perhaps as low as 15-25%, but only IF drier air moves in from
the south-southwest and mixed out the increasing moisture. As
for winds, southerly gusts of at least 20-30 MPH are most
favored in our southern/southeast zones, but with lighter winds
in our west closer to a weak trough axis. A day to watch, but
not overly-clear-cut yet.

- SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
For being 3 days out, confidence is fairly high that this will
be the lightest wind afternoon of the next week, with even gusts
mainly under 20 MPH...mitigating fire weather concerns despite
very warm temps in the 80s and widespread lower RH 15-25%.

- MONDAY AFTERNOON:
Definitely some question marks on mainly the dewpoint/RH
situation, but confidence increasing that winds will be on the
increase out of the south (gusts at least 30-40 MPH). At least
for now, our forecast is calling for potentially critical RH
especially in our western zones behind a dryline. That being
said, there is also some potential that dewpoints/RH rise
considerably higher than our current forecast depicts,
mitigating the threat somewhat. There is also a chance for
spotty afternoon thunderstorm activity, but with better
chances currently expected during the evening-overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Hickford
FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch