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000
FXUS65 KGJT 171646
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SFC WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DEEP
MIXING TO OVER 500MB WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO NEAR 40 MPH SHOULD
DEEPEST MIXING BECOME REALIZED. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF SINGLE
DIGIT POPS FROM THE GRIDS...WITH ONLY A LATE DAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND NUDGES A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE INTO THIS
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR MAX
TEMPS TODAY.

UPPER TROUGH WORKS FROM NEVADA TONIGHT INTO EASTERN UTAH BY EARLY
SATURDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. DISORGANIZED
VORTICITY LOBES PASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY THAT WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS OF AROUND
0.1 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WET BULB ZERO NEAR 10KFT SMALL
HAIL WILL FALL FROM THE STRONGER CORES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING THE FLOW
TO NW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 9KFT WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY IN NW FLOW A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN 80KT JET WRAPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER AS LOW AT 8KFT FEET.

COOLER START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS DRY
OUT AND START TO WARM BACK UP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHRTWV
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RIDGE TRANSLATES QUICKLY EAST
BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING AS ANOTHER STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PACNW. ATTM...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM STALLING TO OUR WEST...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AT KGJT...KMTJ...KCNY...AND KRIL. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH LATE FRIDAY AND WESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

STRONG AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING ON FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE DEEP MIXING
AND ALLOW INCREASING GRADIENT SW WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND DRY
FUELS WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN TROF WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND
PASS SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING MOVE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-
     292-293.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/JDC
AVIATION...JAM
FIRE WEATHER...JOE