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000
FXUS65 KGJT 200445 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ROTATE SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. VORTICITY ADVECTION AND QG FORCING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO...AND BRING A MORE-FOCUSED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL WY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CO AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL...THOUGH
PERHAPS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE QPF. KGJT 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED
THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD ALREADY BE UNDER 9000 FEET AND WITH 700 MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -2C...EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO
GET DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FEET OVERNIGHT. FAVORED AREAS FOR THE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES...AND PERHAPS SOME OF THE VALLEYS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70. WITH SLUG OF MOISTURE HITTING THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND OUR DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE SHOWING SIMILAR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS THE ELKHEAD/PARK/GORE RANGES...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED CO ZONE 13 IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM SERN ID TO NERN CO CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
N-NE AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ENTERING SWRN UT SLIDES UNDERNEATH
IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE BEING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS
AS AN UPPER LOW FORMING OVER NEBRASKA RESULTS IN MOIST NW OROGRAPHIC
FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BY MIDNIGHT AFTER A BIT OF A LULL THIS EVENING.
700 MB TEMPS FALL TO -1C TO -2C ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BY
12Z MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8000 FT MSL THERE.
THIS WOULD AFFECT RABBIT EARS/GORE/VAIL PASSES. WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ROADS MAY NOT HAVE PICKED UP AS
MUCH HEAT SO WOULD BE MORE PRONE TO ACCUMULATE SNOW OR SLUSH BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS POINT TO 2-6 INCHES OF WET SNOW FOR THE PARK RANGE...SO WILL
ISSUE A LATE-SEASON SNOW ADVISORY FOR CO ZONE 4 TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING TO CAPTURE HIGHWAY 40 OVER RABBIT EARS PASS. VAIL
PASS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLUSH BY MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING JUST 1-2 INCHES IN GENERAL FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS SO NO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS. BY MIDDAY MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE PASSES AND MELTING ON ROADWAYS.

300 MB TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING BACK FROM THE LOW LINGERS
ACROSS NE UT/NW CO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ROTATING SOUTH OUT
OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS SHOULD
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FROM CORTEZ TO PAGOSA
SPRINGS TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

TUESDAY...RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. RIDGE AXIS REACHES CENTRAL UT BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO NORMAL OVER EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN EASTERN UT AS ENERGY FROM
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTERACTS WITH RIDGE
OVER THE CWA. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CO
AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE IN PAC NW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...LOW CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
KASE AND KEGE WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH PRECIP FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AT
KASE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT VCSH AT KVEL OR KGJT MONDAY...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. TS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTN...BUT LEFT AS A CB MENTION FOR ONLY KASE AND KEGE FOR
NOW. AGAIN...THIS COULD BE EXPANDED TO OTHER LOCATIONS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE CURRENT COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN
CO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND PICKS UP AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
PERSISTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BWM
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...BM
FIRE WEATHER...JAM