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000
FXUS65 KGJT 180852
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
252 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ONE LAST DAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY FAVORING
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE
REMAINING AREAS SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS DUE TO
DEEP MIXING. THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
MENTIONED DAILY WILL BE JUST ABOUT ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL
START INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER SOMEWHAT TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED LOW
HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE HAVE CAUSED A RED
FLAG WARNING TO BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
INFORMATION BELOW.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. HOT
AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS SRN IDAHO. DEEP MIXING BRINGS THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF 35-40 MPH
WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM
SOUTHEAST UTAH UP ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER TEXAS. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES NE UTAH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER NW CO...IF NOT BEFORE...AND
PROVIDE MINIMAL COOLING. PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD KEEP SOME
WIND PRESENT WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS SWLY FLOW CONTINUES
KEEPING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY AND HOT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY OPENS UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS IT CROSSES INTO
CANADA FROM MONTANA. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH NOT MUCH FLUCTUATION DAY TO DAY. SO...WARM...SUNNY AND GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MONDAY AND EACH DAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH A RETURN TO MORE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FIRE
OVER THE WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...MAINLY EAST OF
KEGE...KASE...KTEX. SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME CHOP ON
TAKEOFF AND LANDINGS IN SUCH CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK...

THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO WINDY AND DRY WEATHER
THIS WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS AND A DRY COOL FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AT NIGHT...POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AND MID-SLOPES
COULD CONTINUE TO HAVE MIXING WINDS. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW OR NON-EXISTENT. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY...AND WINDY AFTERNOONS MAY REMAIN A CONCERN
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM NEW MEXICO...BUT DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ200-202-203-290>292.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ207-293.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ482>484-486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JAD
LONG TERM...TGR/JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD