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000
FXUS65 KGJT 140451
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN UTAH
AND NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO. THEREFORE...ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. SIMILARLY...HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE RED
FLAG TO EXPIRE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY RISES WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ROLLING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

DEEP MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH BASED CONVECTION
WITH INVERTED V SIGNATURE WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS WITH PEAK
GUSTS EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THESE TYPE OF GUSTS WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON AND HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED BY THE WIND ADVISORY...FROM NW
COLORADO TRAILING BACK TO THE EAST CENTRAL UTAH DESERTS.  AS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS NE UTAH INTO
NW COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TO DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.  EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
WANE FAST AROUND SUNSET AND FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS...BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST...GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHALLOW COOL FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY NEARLY
ADJACENT TO THE I70 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL HAVE
BEEN PUSHED EAST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SE RN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND ARCHULETA COUNTY (PAGOSA SPRINGS).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PROJECT EASTWARD.

AFTER THE RIDGELINE ALOFT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND A CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NW...THE GFS AND EC
BEGIN EDGING WINDS UP A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS LATE AS 09Z...
HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z FRIDAY OVER THE SAN JUAN AND WEST ELK
MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL WRAP BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...BUT GUSTS
WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THOUGH RH
REMAINS VERY LOW. DRY WARM SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT POSSIBLE DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...JAM