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000
FXUS65 KGJT 111816
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1216 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE AREA PROVIDED BY
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AS INDICATED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
WARMING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER ADJACENT
VALLEYS LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN SUNDAY WILL BLOCK PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OTHER THAN SOME
ISOLD/SCT STORMS OVER MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE SAN JUANS
BEING FAVORED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ZONAL AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD MON NIGHT. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS...MOST LIKELY OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND WESTERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON TUESDAY WHILE BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HELPING
TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES A
BIT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY
ZONAL...THOUGH READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IN
SPITE OF THIS...BOTH SHOW A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...THOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY NUMEROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BENEATH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z...A
FEW TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS WINDS...AS WELL AS BRIEF
MVFR CIGS. THESE INCLUDE KEGE AND KASE. OTHER AIRPORTS...INCLUDING
KGUC...KCAG...KHDN...KDRO AND KPSO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR
IN BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/JAM
LONG TERM...NL/JAM
AVIATION...CC