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000
FXUS65 KGJT 120444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION FIRING NEAR MONTICELLO
UT AND THE CRAIG..MEEKER AREAS WHILE SOME STRAY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
CAN BEEN SEEN ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR EAST OF RIFLE. BUMPED UP
POPS FOR SOME ISOLD STORMS/SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND BUMP POPS FOR
MORE AREAS IF NEEDED. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO END QUICKLY NEAR
SUNSET.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER WHEN THEY COME OFF THE HILLS. NO DYNAMIC
MECHANISM TO DRIVE CONVECTION BEYOND THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET WHEN A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY STABILIZATION AND CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT. THE
RAP DOESN`T SHOW THIS FEATURE AT ALL...WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TOO
SLOW IN BRINGING IT THROUGH...SO HAVE BASED THE FORECAST ON
EXTRAPOLATING IT THROUGH KGJT BY 03Z.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK DRIER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND PUSH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EAST. BELIEVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE
CONFINED TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE MAX
AND MINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MTNS. A CLOSED LOW SPINS OVER NWRN OLD MEXICO...CUT OFF FROM
THE FLOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NE UT/NW CO BUT NOW DOESN/T LOOK TO REALLY ENTER OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS ON TUESDAY. MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE STRONGER W TO SW WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY COULD POSE A
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE...WITH THE AREA CAUGHT IN
A WEAK DEFORMATION AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE
NOW EJECTING NRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW.

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. SOME COOLING IS INDICATED BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF SUCH FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WILL ACCEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL AS A RESULT. DRY WEATHER
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PREVAILING CONDITION AFTER MIDWEEK WITH
MAINLY JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BELOW VFR. FROM 18Z TO 03Z...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE DIVIDE.
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL