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000
FXUS65 KGJT 141720
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE POP AND DROP TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY HIGH
BASES ANTICIPATED DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS DOWN LOW. WOULD EXPECT
MORE WIND FROM ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH GUST
POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL AS WELL WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS MORE ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NEVADA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO FIRE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND THE MOUNTAINS.

THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD ON FRIDAY WITH SFC WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACNW. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING. PATTERN BUCKLES
A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC WAVE TRACKS
INTO THE AREA WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE PATTERN REMAINING UNSETTLED AS WE WORK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE LATEST ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS CONVECTION MORE IN THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CATEGORIES. WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POP GRIDS AT THIS POINT WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD OFFER A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO SLIDE BACK A BIT BEHIND THIS WAVE LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY AFTER 19Z...WITH A FEW
STORMS ALREADY OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AT 17Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER
COLORADO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE DIVIDE...AND THE EASTERN UINTA
MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
06Z THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH COULD QUICKLY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FUEL CONDITIONS...AND LAND AGENCIES ARE
ENCOURAGED TO KEEP THEIR FUELS STATUS UPDATED.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
DRY BUT WEAK COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED CRITICAL WIND/LOW HUMIDITY
CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE STRONGER
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT FUEL STATUS PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT AT THE MOMENT. THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN CHECK DUE TO GREEN UP. STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND WITH
LOW HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INLAND.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS ON MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
HIGH-BASED AND LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/MPM
LONG TERM...JDC/MPM
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...JDC/15