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000
FXUS65 KGJT 170446
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1046 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES GENERALLY NORTH
OF I-70. RADAR MOSAIC DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A DOWN TICK IN
CONVECTION THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
MOISTURE OVER NE UT THAT IS ADVECTING EASTWARD TO NRN CO. BUMPED
UP POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. DO
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO BE ALL BUT OVER BY 1AM OR SO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 50...BUT
REALLY SHOULD BE ON ITS LAST LEGS AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE...DRIER AIR EDGES IN FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR A CORRIDOR NORTH OF I-70 AND IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED NORMAL EVENING WIND
PATTERNS...BUT THAT TOO SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...SKY...WIND AND TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

RADAR INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK JET CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. AS THE JET EXITS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND ALLOW WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW THE 0.5
INCH RANGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OBVIOUS DISTURBANCES...EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESS
COVERAGE THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPPER RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS A LARGE AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST COASTLINE. ISENTROPIC
SURFACES SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...AND BEING PINNED ON THE EASTERN SIDE BY UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...FAR EASTERN FLAT TOPS AND SAN JUANS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THINGS LOOK CALM. PWATS CONTINUE TO DROP
BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY AS WE PICK UP A DRIER
FETCH OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENT WITH THIS DRY
INFILTRATION WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS THE WESTERN LOW
MOVES INLAND AND BEGINS TO PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS
EXPLAINED IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW. EASTERN PLAINS RIDGING WILL
PREVENT THE WESTERN LOW FROM DROPPING INTO OUR CWA BUT RATHER
REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND SOMETIMES GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. AS SUCH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THE
FAR TERM MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL SHEAR
APART BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RELAX THE GRADIENT AND HELP
ALLEVIATE THE AFTERNOON WINDY CONDITIONS. AT THE MOMENT THE CHANCE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MOUNTAIN TAF
SITES...KEGE AND KASE...POSSIBLY SEEING SOME VCTS.  SAN JUANS ARE
FAVORED AT THIS TIME AS IS THE DIVIDE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS THAN SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE
MAINLY SCT SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPPER RIDGING WITH A GRADUALLY DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WESTERN
SLOPE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY MID WEEK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING IN STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO
WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT FUEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY IN THE FAR WESTERN
CWA AND COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY BY THIS FAVORABLE
PATTERN. THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY SURVIVE INTO THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD. FUEL SPECIALISTS AND FIRE MANAGERS ARE URGED TO KEEP
FUEL STATUS UPDATED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-207-290>293.

UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR UTZ483.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...15