National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KGJT 172058
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
258 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

TODAY HAS BEEN A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE INDEED DRIED
OUT...MOISTURE STILL REMAINS WITH SOME STORMS FIRING OFF OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON THAN
SUNDAY WITH STRONG GUSTS AT KGJT AND KEEO. PULSE STORMS ON RADAR
HAVE NOT LOOKED IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE DRY SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH
DRIER AIR REDUCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BELIEVE THAT MOST STORMS
WILL HAVE "RETIRED" FOR THE DAY BEFORE SUNSET.

SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY LEADING TO SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES OF 25 TO 30 MPH...PRIMARILY NW COLORADO AND MOST
DESERT VALLEYS. DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STRONG DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING
WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES...WHICH TYPICALLY IS
UNDERESTIMATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE SCENARIOS.  CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SLOPE HIGH COUNTRY...OR TOWARD
THE DIVIDE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

WEDNESDAY THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO
OREGON THEN SPINS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
KEEPS A TIGHT SW GRADIENT WIND OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
FLOW WILL BE QUITE DRY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOW OPENS AND TRACKS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLACKEN THE WINDS. THIS WILL SLACKEN THE GRADIENT
WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. IT IS ALSO A KEY COMPONENT TO
THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON SEASON... AND THE EC ESPECIALLY SHOWS THE
SIERRA MADRE OF NW MEXICO GETTING CONVECTIVELY VERY ACTIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WRN
COLORADO THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS
PASS OVER THE KEGE AND KASE TAF SITES. AFTER 02Z...SKY CONDITIONS
TREND TOWARD SKC.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FIRE OVER
THE WRN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY...MAINLY EAST OF KEGE...KASE...KTEX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK...

THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE TUESDAY WITH SW GRADIENT WINDS INCREASING
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO. THESE STRONGER SW
GRADIENT WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW
WILL BE VERY DRY...PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
MAY EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND MID-SLOPES COULD CONTINUE TO HAVE MIXING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE IN COORDINATION WITH THE SALT LAKE
CITY...OTHER SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...AND LAND USE AGENCIES...A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT A FEW EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING COZ293 AND 293.
THEN ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES UP FROM NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

THANK YOU TO VERNAL...CRAIG...AND GRAND JUNCTION LAND USE OFFICES
FOR UPDATING FUEL STATUS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ200-202-203-290>292.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ207-293.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     UTZ482>484-486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE