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000
FXUS65 KGJT 200943
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TONIGHT. DEFORMATION AXIS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WYOMING TODAY
BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE BEST FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE PARK RANGE AND
FLATTOPS WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH
NOON ON MONDAY. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER VAIL PASS WITH
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OCCURRING LATER IN THE
MORNING WHEN HEATING WILL LESSEN IMPACT OF SNOW ON ROADS. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE NORTH. THE NAM INDICATES
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CO CENTERED FROM
03Z-09Z... ALONG WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...FAVORING THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE DIURNAL
ELEMENT FADES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE
BETTER CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UT/CO BORDER
EARLY TUE EVENING...THEN TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDDAY WED. AS
A RESULT THE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST ON WED. THESE WILL BE BENIGN WEATHER PERIODS WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB BUT REMAIN SHY OF NORMAL VALUES ON TUE...THEN CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL ON WED.

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BIG
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...LOW CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PUT KASE IN MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW. KEGE AND KRIL WILL EXPERIENCE ALSO EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD VCSH TO
KVEL...KMTJ AND KGJT FOR TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE CURRENT COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN
CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ004-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/MPM
LONG TERM...EH/MPM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT