000
FXUS65 KGJT 201004
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

STRONG CYCLONE WILL STAY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY AND THAT
KEEPS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SHALLOW COOL FRONT
HAS NEARLY REACHED THE I70 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW...SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE ENHANCED LIKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF A DEEP MIXED LAYER MEANS
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SMALLER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND IT. DRY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH OUT OR AT LEAST SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS GOING. WINDS SHOULD
FOLLOW THE PATTERN OF DECREASING THU NIGHT ONLY TO BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN ERN CO MAY WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE STATE A BIT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

THE NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW ELONGATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN LOW CENTER SHIFTS INTO CANADA WHILE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPS
DOWN ACROSS ID/WY. THIS PUSHES A MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT TOWARD NE UT
AND NW CO BY LATE SATURDAY.

NRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW MOVES DOWNSTREAM ON SUNDAY...BUT A STRONG
PACIFIC WAVE REACHES THE WEST COAST STATES ON MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT WILL KEEP GRADIENT FLOW
ACROSS UTAH AND WRN COLORADO INTO TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE AIR MASS STAYS DRY
AND HOT WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES.

THE GFS SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION ON
NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF CONCURS AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS MAY COME
TO AN END BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS
AT MOST AIRFIELDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO INCLUDED SW CO ZONE 207 IN THE
RED FLAG FOR FRI WITH MODELS INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS...AND PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE EARLIER THIS
WEEK WHEN IT DIDN`T TAKE MUCH TO HIT THE GUST CRITERIA WITH THE DEEP
MIXING. WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 207 MAY BE THE FAVORED AREA.

MODELS INDICATED BORDERLINE CRITICAL WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE ERN
UINTA BASIN FRIDAY...BUT FELT IT WAS TOO CLOSE TO LEAVE OUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT SHOWN ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND THE STILL LOW HUMIDITY.

NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LOOK PROBABLE STILL THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES NE UT/NW CO BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-
     207-290>293.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ200-202-
     203-207-290>293.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ482>484-486-
     487.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ484-486-
     487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/PF
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAD