000
FXUS65 KGJT 161734
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2012

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AS NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD START FIRING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP WARM
TEMPS GOING WITH HIGHS TODAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

&&

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. BULK OF ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER WIND SHEER IN PLACE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FIRE BY 18Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH NO APPARENT FORCING TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHUT DOWN WITH SUNSET. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN PERHAPS BREAKING INVERSIONS ON THE NORTH FACING SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE DEEP TROUGH WORKS INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY AND INSUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MIXING TO AROUND 500MB WHERE SW
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. THIS AGAIN RAISES FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES INTO UTAH GIVING IT A NEGATIVE
TILT. MOISTURE ALSO BEGINS TO INVADE FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY SEE LOCALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER MOISTENS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH
WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAKING SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THIS WILL KEEP DIURNALLY DRIVE CONVECTION GOING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE RIDGING RETURNS AROUND MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z NOON FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

WIDESPREAD VFR OCCURRING ATTM WITH SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
MOUNTAINS BEING FAVORED. NO MENTION OF STORMS OR SHOWERS IN TAFS
DUE TO WIDESPREAD NATURE OF PRECIP. VFR TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS SW FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE TODAY AS A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROF WORKS THROUGH NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PRODUCE DRY AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN
COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED WHERE
FUELS ARE DRY. SOME WEAK HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH THE REGION. A COOL DOWN WITH THE TROF SHOULD EASE THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ203-207-290-292-293.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-
     292.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JDC/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/JDC
AVIATION...TGR
 FIRE WEATHER...JOE