000
FXUS65 KGJT 161348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
748 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A QUICK LOOK THE MODELS AND RADAR/SATELLITE INDICATE WEAK FORCING
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A WEAK JET AND UPGLIDE
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE INCREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3S OF AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY MAY SEE SOME WETTING RAINS IN SOME OF THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SURPRISINGLY...CONVECTION STAYED TOGETHER ALL NIGHT WITH EVEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN SEEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GRAND VALLEY WITH THE CELLS
RESPONSIBLE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER SMALL CELL
HAS ALSO JUST FIRED UP SOUTH OF RANGELY. BUMPED UP POPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE CELLS AND EXPECT THE GUSTS WILL GET
STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CONVECTION CONTINUES AT THIS EARLY HOUR WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES DETECTED NEAR VERNAL AND ALSO IN BLANDING UT. WATER VAPOR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL UT BUT APPARENTLY
NOT ABLE TO REACH OUR REGION. WHILE THIS AIR TRIES TO MOVE
EASTWARD... A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET OF ROUGHLY 60 TO 70 KTS
CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM SRN CALIF/ARIZ TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION
UP THROUGH NERN CO AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z GJT SOUNDING
INDICATES .41 INCHES OF PWAT WHILE MODELS SHOWING ABOUT .5 INCHES.
APPARENTLY THIS COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SHORT- LIVED STORMS
GOING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH FORECAST FOLLOWING SUIT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS
IN...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE SAME
AREAS THAT SAW CONVECTION YESTERDAY. SKEW-T/S STILL SHOWING
INVERTED V PROFILES SO GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE WEAK 250 MB UPPER JET PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON MONDAY LOOKS A TAD DRIER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING 0.4 TO 0.5 INCH...BUT SMALL AND
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS
IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH TEMPS INCHING UPWARD ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN CA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM JET CUTS ACROSS
SRN CA TO THE 4 CORNERS. THIS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 0.3 INCH OR LESS TUESDAY. MODELS KEEP THE
UPPER LOW OFFSHORE THROUGH TUE AS IT BUMPS UP AGAINST RIDGING FROM
SWRN CANADA DOWN TO WRN TX/NRN MEXICO. OUR AREA SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE PAC NW TROUGH TEMPERS CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT ON JUST
HOW MUCH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR SLOW RISE TUESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE SIMILAR FROM DAY TO
DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT
FROM THE DEEP LOW SKIRTING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. PLENTY OF SUN IS
EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL FEW TO SCT SKIES WILL BE COMMON THIS
MORNING WITH SOME BKN CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE AFTER
18Z...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY STORMS
THAT FORM POSSIBLY REACHING 45 MPH OR SO. TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN
THE CLEAR TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR KASE AND KEGE WHICH MAY SEE SOME
VCTS OR A PASSING TS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE COLORADO
FIRE ZONES. SO MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY...MANY OF WHICH WILL BE DRY OR WITH NARROW RAIN SHAFTS. A
PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN WHICH BRINGS A DRYING TREND TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SW GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TOWARD MID-WEEK AS
THIS OCCURS...FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MPM
SHORT TERM...TGR/JAD
LONG TERM...TGR/JAD
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAD