Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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421
FXUS65 KGJT 241815
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1215 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Hardly any change in the forecast as high pressure, to our south,
remains in control. The ridge axis of the high reaches from
Arizona up through Nevada and into Oregon. Upper level wind flow
remains fairly light so the usual afternoon gusty winds are
possible but nothing exceptional noted. Another sunny day in store
with a few cumulus expected over the higher terrain but coverage
will be minimal. Models do indicate that some smoke from the Brian
Head fire will move into the four corners region so included smoke
for this afternoon for that area.

Little change for Sunday though models do introduce some
convection for the San Juans in the afternoon. Forecast follows
suit with some isolated showers and storms possible from noon
onwards. Most convection will be high-based with a few gusty winds
from the stronger cells that form. Temperatures will slowly start
increasing once again as the sunshine continues.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The ridge of high pressure will remain centered in southern Arizona
and extending along the California coast on Sunday night, resulting
in a mild and dry end to the weekend. Going into the new work week,
a broad upper level low will begin to dig into the northwestern
CONUS. This will gradually flatten the ridge over the course of a
few days with temperatures moderating, though still remaining above
normal for this time of year. By Wednesday, the base of the upper
level trough and a surface cold front will be working through the
Great Basin. Southwesterly winds will increase ahead of this system
as the upper level gradient tightens.

500mb winds switch to the northwest on Friday as the front works
through the region. Not an overly impressive cooler airmass with the
front at this time with model guidance keeping temperatures just a
few degrees below seasonal for the latter half of the week. As far
as the chance for showers goes, am keeping in line with the previous
forecaster`s thinking. While the arrival of the upper level trough
will introduce the chance for precipitation, available moisture is
lacking at this time so confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

High pressure positioned over the area will maintain VFR
conditions at the terminals through at least the next 24 hours.
Expect diurnally driven winds to prevail, i.e. terrain driven
winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...Larry



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