Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 182124
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
224 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN UPPER JET MAX DROPPING OUT OF SWRN CANADA INTO MT HAS PUSHED SOME
CLOUDS INTO NW CO THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A FEW ECHOS
OVER THE CENTRAL WY MTNS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
NRN MTNS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR NW CO TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS THOUGH.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED AND WED NIGHT. AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND WED
BUT LOSE MUCH OF ITS DEFINITION AND WEAKEN AS IT FIGHTS THROUGH AN
UPPER RIDGE. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ABOUT ALL IT SHOULD BRING BY
THE TIME IT APPROACHES OUR AREA LATER WED NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL
HELP MODERATE LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME ISO/SCT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.

ANOTHER TROUGH ON FRIDAY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. KEPT POPS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AND THE
SAN JUANS ON FRIDAY EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH
THIS FEATURE.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE PROBABLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 OR 7000
FEET ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS EVEN INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH SIX HOUR BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO IRON OUT DETAILS AS THE WEEKEND GETS
CLOSER...BUT BE PREPARED OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL OR BE OUT IN THE ELEMENTS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

STABLE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO NW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z WED.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAD



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