Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
330 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Residual moisture combined with daytime heating has allowed
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the area. Coverage is down from Tue and storms seem to be moving
along at a better pace, but they do seem to be a little more
energetic. Isolated small hail is possible and gusty outflow
winds, but individual storms have generally been short-lived.

As heating fades this evening storms will diminish, with little
activity expected beyond midnight. Look for minimum temperatures
to drop to around normal for late Aug.

A low pressure trough will drop out of the Pacific northwest and
into the northern Great Basin on Thu. As a result, the flow over
our forecast area will become southwest. While this flow will
mostly be weak to moderate, it will open the door to the next weak
surge of moisture from the south. Therefore we can expect an
uptick in showers and thunderstorms, especially during the late
day hours. One embedded weak shortwave will pass over the area in
the late afternoon through the evening. This will act to enhance
the convection. Brief heavy rain and small hail will be possible,
but storm motion should be a little better than on Tuesday.

With the main trough remaining upstream over the Great Basin
some nocturnal showers should hang on throughout the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The large scale pattern remains fairly static through Friday with
moisture continuing to make its way over the forecast area carried
by the somewhat gentle southwest flow. Therefore look for showers
and thunderstorms to again increase during during the afternoon,
and diminish late in the evening. The weakened Great Basin trough
does lift out and shift east beginning Fri night and into Sun.
This will eventually result in a gradual drying trend, which will
become noticeable on Sun. Until then however, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will persist Fri and Sat, mainly during
the late day periods. The southern portion of the CWA will be
favored, but activity will be possible over all areas.

On Sunday drier conditions begin to take hold as high pressure
begins to build over the region, and the subtropical moisture
plume will lean over into the central CONUS. Models indicate that
this drier and warmer pattern will then persist through the end
of the long term period. Temperatures will climb to a little above
normal for the first half of the new work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

While the air mass has dried a little in the last 24 hours,
daytime heating allowed isolated to scattered storms to develop
earlier this afternoon. This convective activity is expected to
continue into the evening, mainly favoring the higher terrain.
This activity will wind down after around 02z. Showers and
thunderstorms will again re-develop by Thu afternoon, with an
uptick in coverage due to better moisture. KASE KDRO and KTEX will
be the most probable TAF sites to be impacted by weather both
through this evening and again Thu afternoon. VFR should dominate
the forecast but temporary MVFR conditions are possible with
passing showers. Locally gusty outflow winds and small hail will
also be possible.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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