Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270015
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
613 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Showers and thunderstorms developed across the forecast area as a
low pressure system moved over the four corners today. The center
of this circulation will track east of the Continental Divide
late this evening, then across southeast Colorado on Friday. As a
result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue this evening before diminishing from the west after
midnight. By late evening the chance for thunderstorms will
quickly end as the low center shifts east. Snow is expected above
around 10000 feet, with up to 6 inches possible along the Colorado
mountains from around Vail Pass southward to around Monarch Pass.

On Friday, a transient high pressure ridge will move overhead.
However, wrap around moisture will keep showers and late day
thunderstorms in the forecast, albeit with a modest downturn.
Again mountains will be favored, with little to no activity over
the western valleys. Lingering showers/thunderstorms will wind
down during the evening as daytime heating wanes.

Temperatures will warm a little on Friday as the high pressure
moves overhead. But temps will still stay below normal for late
May.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

The long wave trough will reload along the west coast during the
weekend as the next low pressure disturbance develops over
southern California. The flow over our area will quickly become
southwest again by Sat. This relatively unstable flow will carry
enough moisture to keep afternoon convection in the
forecast...mainly along the mountains.

Models show this low weakening as it gradually tracks east early
in the work week. Also a stronger low center over the Pacific
northwest will shift east. As both of these features head east,
high pressure will develop along the west coast. So continued
mainly mountain convection can be expected each afternoon through
Tue. Then the west coast ridge will strengthen and move into the
Great Basin for warmer and drier conditions midweek and beyond.

Temperatures are expected to be a tad below normal during the
weekend, then right around normal through the first half of the
work week. Temps will then climb to just a tad above normal by
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

The storm system will work onto the plains through the night.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue mainly
over the mountains through 06z. Gusty winds to 35 mph and small
hailare possible with storms, with snow above 8000 ft. Mountain tops
may see brief obscuration.

From 06z-18z VFR conditions dominate with only isolated showers
mainly over the central mountains.

After 18z Friday scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
again fire over area mountains with a 20-30% chance of brief
impacts at VFR sites.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ010-012.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...Joe



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