Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 011037
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
437 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A
SMALL SHIFT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST- NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA BY
DAYS END. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
OVER WESTERN COLORADO LATER IN THE DAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES (PW) NEAR 1 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
...MID-LEVEL FORCING...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION. GIVEN PW VALUES...
EXPECT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BRING A
SMALL MEASURE OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER (RELATIVE TERM) THAN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH BY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED AS PW VALUES DIP TO NEAR 0.6 OF AND INCH
ON AVERAGE OVER THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS IN RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MIDRANGE MODELS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SW CO AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A CHANGE
TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE...I DARE SAY...A MONSOON PATTERN. BY SUNDAY
MORNING THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS THE GREAT BASIN HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO FLOW NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO AZ AND SRN NEW MEXICO. A DISTINCT PLUME IS PROJECTED TO
STRETCH NORTH OVER AZ INTO UT BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...IN
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WY AND PULL THE UT MOISTURE PLUME EAST OVER
EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUE THE MODELS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE BEING PULLED FURTHER EAST AND BENDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SO IT LOOKS WHAT MAY BE OUR FIRST MONSOONAL
PUSH WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DRIER AIR STARTS FILTERING IN
FROM THE WEST TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MORE MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS...A FEW TAFS SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM NW TO SE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KRIL
TO KDRO WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FROM ABOUT
20Z TO 05Z KASE...KEGE...KRIL...KGUC...KTEX...KDRO AND KPSO
HAVING ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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