000
FXUS65 KGJT 132226 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
421 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

CORRECTED PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
WHERE THURSDAY WAS MENTIONED. IN BOTH CASES...THURSDAY HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

DEEP MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENED GRADIENT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH BASED CONVECTION
WITH INVERTED V SIGNATURE WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT WINDS WITH PEAK
GUSTS EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THESE TYPE OF GUSTS WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON AND HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED BY THE WIND ADVISORY...FROM NW
COLORADO TRAILING BACK TO THE EAST CENTRAL UTAH DESERTS.  AS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...DRY SLOT PUNCHES ACROSS NE UTAH INTO
NW COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TO DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.  EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO
WANE FAST AROUND SUNSET AND FOLLOWED BY CLEARING CONDITIONS...BUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER THE SAN JUAN FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTHEAST...GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHALLOW COOL FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY NEARLY
ADJACENT TO THE I70 CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL HAVE
BEEN PUSHED EAST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AND ARCHULETA COUNTY (PAGOSA SPRINGS).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES...LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...A SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BECOMES AVAILABLE WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PROJECT EASTWARD.

AFTER THE RIDGELINE ALOFT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING AND A CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC NW...THE GFS
AND EC BEGIN EDGING WINDS UP A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 02Z
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE RESULTANT SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO INCREASE THE STRONGER WIND
THREAT AT THE SURFACE WITH UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. TURBULENCE ALONG NEAR MOUNTAIN RIDGE LINES WILL ALSO BE
A THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AOA 6000 FT AGL WITH MAINLY BLOWING DUST A THREAT TO
LOWER FLIGHT CRITERIA. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
TEMPORARY SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE FORECAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KPSO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE AT 8PM TONIGHT FOR WESTERN CO AND A
SMALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN UT. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THOUGH RH
REMAINS VERY LOW. DRY WARM SW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT POSSIBLE DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ001-002-006.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202-203-
     207-290>293.

UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ024-027-029.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ483.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...ELH