000
FXUS65 KGJT 110939
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE AREA PROVIDED BY
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AS INDICATED IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
WARMING WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW CELLS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER ADJACENT
VALLEYS LATE IN THE DAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN SUNDAY WILL BLOCK PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING OTHER THAN SOME
ISOLD/SCT STORMS OVER MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE SAN JUANS
BEING FAVORED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ZONAL AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD MON NIGHT. MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTORMS...MOST LIKELY OVER
THE SAN JUANS AND WESTERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD REACHING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ON TUESDAY WHILE BRINGING SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HELPING
TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES A
BIT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY
ZONAL...THOUGH READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IN
SPITE OF THIS...BOTH SHOW A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...THOUGH NOT ESPECIALLY NUMEROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 17Z
TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY. FROM 21Z TO 03Z...A FEW STORMS MAY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER KGUC...KDRO...
AND KPSO. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR
BRIEFLY WITH STRONG...GUSTY...AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. ELSEWHERE
...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/JAM
LONG TERM...NL/JAM
AVIATION...NL