Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 260339
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
939 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTH GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FELT THIS EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES... WITH CORTEZ DURANGO PAGOSA OBSERVING NORTH
WINDS 5-10MPH AND SW SAN JUAN MTN SITES REPORTING NORTH WIND
GUSTING TO 15 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE SKIES HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED...WINDS ARE LIGHT...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT.

THE FREEZE WARNING...ISSUED TO COVER POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO BUDDING
AND FLOWERING PLANTS THAT ARE BLOOMING AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...LOOKS
ON TRACK. THE 00Z NAM GUIDANCE FOR GRAND JUNCTION IS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE NE DRAINAGE WINDS HERE AT THE
AIRPORT ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN NORMAL AT 9PM. SO PERHAPS THE
GRAND VALLEY FRUIT TREES MAY NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE. GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS FOR MONTROSE...NUCLA...AND MOAB ALL LOOK ON TRACK FOR
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION...OR SECONDARY FRONT...SWEPT OVER THE AREA TODAY...
AND IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS
FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. A NORTH FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEHIND THE MORE EXCITING SHOWERS/WINDS THAT OCCURRED AS
THE FRONT PASSED. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE GUSTS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WHICH HAS CONTINUED
THROUGH THE DAY...WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY LATE THIS EVENING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE
CLEARING SKIES...TODAY`S COLD ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...AT LEAST COMPARED TO
RECENT MILD CONDITIONS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY DAYS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S OR LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...FRUIT TREES HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...THE UNCOMPAHGRE
AND THE CENTRAL GUNNISON BASINS...THE PARADOX VALLEY AND THE GRAND
FLAT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE GRAND
VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT...BUT VEGETATION THERE IS FURTHER ALONG
WITH SOME PEACH ORCHARDS IN FULL BLOOM...AND THEREFORE MORE
VULNERABLE.

THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON FRIDAY FOR DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INLAND FRI NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION RACING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON SAT. EXPECT TO SEE BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT AS A TRAILING
700 MB COLD FRONT DRAGS ACROSS. THE SOUTHERN SECTION SPLITS OFF AND
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/BAJA/NW MEXICO AREA. MODELS NOT AS
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS AND MAY KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY. BUT OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW STATES NEXT TUE-
WED WHILE MODELS MOVE THE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE THE DESERT SW/NRN MEXICO EASTWARD. MODEL DIFFERENCES
PERSIST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO STAY BETWEEN THE TWO FOR JUST
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...NL/JOE


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