Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 300911
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DRIER AND WARMER REGIME HAS ARRIVED ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY DRY...
BUT IT WILL FEEL LIKE JUNE. RIDGE AMPLIFIES TODAY AND SUNDAY AND
SHIFTS OVER TO THE WRN SLOPE. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
PASSES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THAT EXTENDS INTO WYOMING...PERHAPS
SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UINTAS AND NW COLORADO. THIS
SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NORTH...BUT LESSER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH (EXCEPT THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS).

SUNDAY...THE GFS AND NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE SLIGHTLY MORE
CONVECTION THAN SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS SLIGHTLY COUNTERINTUITIVE
GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS ON TOP OF THE REGION. EXPECT STEEP LOWER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
YEAR SO FAR. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS COULD TRIGGER
THIS ACTIVITY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...SO MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE HUGGING THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORE OF THE
SHORT LIVED PULSE TYPE STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

POP AND DROP STORMS WILL BE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS...ALLOWING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM WEEK WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS OUT OF PHASE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...PROMISING ANOTHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY ACROSS...BUT KEEPS SYSTEM
OPEN AND GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS...WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED
SOLUTIONS AND NOT DEVIATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ON
THE PLUS SIDE OF NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 KTS...HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS. MOUNTAINS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED NEAR SHOWERS.
TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH AND VICINITY SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN TERMINAL FORECASTS ATTM.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC


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