000
FXUS65 KGJT 230322
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS THIS EVENING AS NEW FUEL
STATUS REPORTS HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A BIT. DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. NO OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 ANALYSIS SHOWING A BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NOAM. THIS INCLUDES A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES WELL INTO THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED TOWARD OUR CWA AND BRING A STRONG WARM UP INCLUDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

SOME CU FORMING FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPLIFT
COMING FROM A WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN UTAH/COLORADO BORDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
ASCENT AND A FEW SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AS BONE DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL BE THE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH DESERTS TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNVALLEY FLOW WIT FORECAST LOWS TOWARD THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY STRONG HEATING WILL AGAIN BE TAKING PLACE AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STRONGER CORE OF MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW. EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL BRING THE WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE LOWER 80S. PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A
RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE STRONG
MIXED LAYER TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 90 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY IS 31 MAY...AND
WE WILL BE APPROACHING THIS TOMORROW...SO PUSHED THE FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES CLOSER ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SOME OF THIS
GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING WINDS TOWARD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS AND BUFKIT SHOWS A FULLY MIXED PROFILE
BRINGING GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS SO NO HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT SOME CU/MDT CU
DEV ELOPEMENT OVER THE HILLS TOMORROW BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN MANY AREAS. EXPECT
LITTLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF OVER ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALSO DROP LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH A MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE
ON THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ALL HINT AT SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EC SLOWEST...THE CANADIAN
FASTEST...AND THE GFS IN BETWEEN.

AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY DRY AND WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY PLAY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORNING
LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL. LONG TERM GUIDANCE WAS MODIFIED FOR MORE
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 500MB OR MORE WHICH WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY LATE-DAY SOUTHWEST WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASE.
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING DUE TO DOWN VALLEY FLOW. FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR THE WEST COAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST DAYTIME
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EACH DAY. FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCHES IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

UPDATED FUEL STATUS FOR ZONE 293 INDICATES THE ZONE IN GREEN-UP
WITH FUELS NO LONGER CRITICAL...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THIS ZONE FROM
THE WARNING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ207-290-
     292.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ207-290-292.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JDC
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JOE/JDC