Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 181432 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
832 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AND LITTLE SPEED MAX AT THE JET STREAM
LEVEL AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SAGGING INTO NRN COLORADO TODAY HAS
ALREADY GENERATED ISOLTED SHOWERS ALONG THE HWY 40 CORRIDOR AND A
FEW MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL UT. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS INDICATE
LIGHT RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. SO THE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES
A BUMP IN POPS FOR THE NRN THIRD OF CO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BLENDING INTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED
THE RISE IN TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BREAK
UP SOME IN THE CURRENTLY CLOUDY REGIONS BY AFTERNOON AND FORECAST
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A FEW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES POPPING UP IN NAM12 AS OPPOSED TO 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE BIGGEST BEING A WEAK JET STREAK TO OUR WEST.
THIS STREAK IS CURRENTLY CAUSING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN UT AND
AS IT CONTINUES DROPPING SE WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE THESE CLOUDS
INVADING OUR CWA. WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL...THIS WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR A BIT WIDER
SPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH A FEW CELLS MAY DRIFT OVER
VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY.  FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE AT A MINIMUM
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STRONGER BRANCH OF THE PACIFIC JET WILL BE
MOVING ARRIVING TO NOAM BEGINNING TONIGHT AND BRING A SUBTLE SHIFT
TO THE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. H5 ANALYSIS STILL HAS GENERAL
TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS WILL BE FLIPPED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WHAT THAT MEANS CLOSER TO HOME IS THAT RESIDUAL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST WILL BE PULLED EASTWARD BY THE SHIFTING HIGH
AND GIVE A BOOST TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ASCENT COMES INTO PLAY
FROM A WEAKER BRANCH OF THE NORTHERN JET MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES
FOLLOWED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAJA
REGION. S/W ENERGY WILL EXIST BUT EVEN IN DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE PROGS
NOTHING IS WELL DEFINED. TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
OR NEAR PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE LEFT FRONT REGION OF THE
ANTICYCLONICALLY SUBTROP JET MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN CWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL INITIALLY BRING ASCENT...INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO OUR REGION BUT THEN LOOKS TO BEND THE BEST MONSOONAL
TAP TO OUR EAST FOR A QUIETER START TO THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD
BE SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT
MORE LIKELY JUST AN EARLIER START TO THE CONVECTION COME SUNDAY.
THIS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON COVERAGE
WHICH SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW AGAIN
WENT DOWN THE PERSISTENCE ROUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL SQUEEZE THE JET BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM12 IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES SUNDAY BUT THE GENERAL GIST
OF INCREASING PRECIP AMTS AND AREA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE NW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP
THOUGH A QUICK SHOWER OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ON WED
AND THUR...MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN AND WITH IT MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH THE 100 DEGREE
MARK WED AND THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME
CONVECTION FIRING OFF THIS AFTN. COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH VCSH/VCTS OR EVEN A QUICK TS POSSIBLE FOR
KTEX...KEGE AND KASE. SOME GUSTY WINDS...AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE FROM STORMS TODAY. REMAINING TERMINAL SITES WILL SEE
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT
TAF SITES WILL SEE CONVECTION ON STATION. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF STORMS IN TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BEN
SHORT TERM...TGR/15
LONG TERM...15/TGR
AVIATION...TGR



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