Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 190540
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1140 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Added mention of isolated thunderstorms to the eastern portion of
the southwest San Juans as some storms have developed near Wolf
Creek Pass and areas east of our CWA in the eastern San Juans.
Potential some activity may spill over to our side so added a
mention through this evening. Storms should dissipate with sunset
with little additional forcing and drier air across much of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A few clouds are popping up this afternoon over the San Juans
while much higher, thinner clouds are drifting over the rest of
the CWA. No concerns for any precipitation as high pressure
remains firmly in control and will remain so over the next several
days. High temperatures should run a few degrees below what we saw
yesterday but when we`re talking mid to upper 90s, it doesn`t make
too much of a difference. Having said that, as the center of high
pressure moves more directly over the four corners region,
temperatures look to increase even more tomorrow. Highs on Monday
for southeast Utah and the Moab area look to range from 105F
upwards which is well within heat advisory criteria so said
advisory remains in effect. As far as any weather, a few more
clouds are possible over the San Juans with a very slight chance
for a passing shower. Dry and hot everywhere else.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The center of high pressure remains overhead Tuesday but gets
slowly forced southward as passing waves move across the northern
Rockies. The first wave brushes our CWA Tuesday afternoon and
evening but minimal moisture and forcing will keep any showers and
convection over the higher terrain and even that will be very
isolated. A second wave looks to move over during the day Thursday and
while the trough itself is rather weak, it does dig a bit further
into our area which might cause enough lift to fire off a bit
more convection.

As far as temperatures are concerned, no change there as triple
digit highs continue for southeast Utah/Moab and will filter into
the Grand Valley. For that reason, the heat advisory for southeast
Utah continues with the Grand Valley being added. This advisory
continues until Thursday.

On Friday, a stronger wave will drive down from Montana and bring
some widespread showers and storms to the front range while we
remain dry. However, this wave will cause our winds to become more
northerly allowing cooler temperatures to advect in. In fact,
temperatures may drop a few degrees below normal Saturday before
jumping back up to seasonal norms by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours as high
pressure dominates the region with mostly clear and dry
conditions. Winds will generally be terrain driven and follow
typical diurnal patterns. Some occasional breezes up to 20 mph
are possible during the afternoon during peak heating at a few
TAF sites.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A number of streams and creeks continue to run strong, cold, and
high and will continue to do so through early next week. The
Green River near Jensen remains near bankfull and CBRFC forecasts
indicate that high flows there will continue. Meanwhile, tunnel
closures caused the Roaring Fork in Aspen to just barely reach
action stage a few hours ago though now the river is trending
downward again. Obviously, the Roaring Fork is hovering at
bankfull and looks to stay that way for the next few days.

Where water is running high, river banks may become saturated and
unstable. Lowlands along the rivers may also become inundated with
water.  Remember if you are going to raft, kayak or tube on the
rivers be sure to always wear a life jacket.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ006.

UT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-
     027-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...MDA
HYDROLOGY...TGJT



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