Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 290941
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN AN EVER SO GRADUAL INCREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE GJT SOUNDINGS. THE GREAT
BASIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS KEEPING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO IN LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS INDICATE A BIT MORE MOISTURE LEAKING IN
FROM THE SOUTH TODAY UNDER THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME. 500J/KG CAPE
VALUES TODAY ARE PRETTY WIDESPREAD WHICH IS NOT SIGNIFICANT BUT
MAY BE INDICATING MORE COVERAGE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY. DURING THE LATE DAY TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR
BUT MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE SAN JUANS AGAIN.

TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
DESERT VALLEYS. ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AS THESE WERE
RUNNING WAY TOO HIGH IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS OF NE UT AND NW CO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND AND INCREASE WITHIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  EASTERN
UT AND WESTERN CO WILL REMAIN OVER THE N TO NW FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONTINUED
HOT CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO RIFLE TO DURANGO.
THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EACH
DAY...WITH AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE CAUSING THE RIDGE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE NE UT AND NW CO TO BECOME DRIER...BUT ALLOW MORE
MOISTURE TO REACH SW CO.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER DRIER
NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING FUEL FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW WINDS...THERE IS
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE THESE STORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT AIRPORTS
WITHIN THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRO AND
KPSO WHICH FACE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSHOWERS
BETWEEN 1400 AND 0200.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC


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