Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 172129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
329 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Moisture continues to slowly invade the region from the south
this afternoon with a few light echoes showing up on radar.
Hi-res models not all that excited about the potential for more
than isolated activity through this evening with storms focused
on the higher terrain. Still could see some gusty and erratic
outflow winds and lightning will remain a concern as little to
no rainfall is expected this evening from storms that do form.

Deeper plume of moisture arrives near the Four Corners by morning
with precipitable water values quickly climbing to over an
inch...peaking by late Monday afternoon. Weak ripples embedded
within the flow...combined with daytime heating and forcing on
south facing slopes will trigger more widespread convection on
Monday with storms moving from south to north. Storm motion will
be a tad bit faster for this time of year with gusty outflow
winds a continued concern, especially early on in the day and
along the northern edge of the deeper moisture plume.

Storms continue through Monday evening with a few hanging on
through the night as we often see in these deeper pushes, so
will not shut pops off completely Monday night.

After several hot days, temperatures will be dropping with the
trade-off being higher relative humidity and warmer overnight
lows. Expect max temps to fall in line with current guidance
which will place much of the forecast area near to slightly below
seasonal norms for the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

High Pressure centered over the High Plains will continue to
drive monsoonal moisture northward across the forecast are
through the end of the week. Expect little change to the daily
forecast with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, favoring
the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with precipitable water values holding over an inch. The
ridge starts shifting west across New Mexico and into the Four
Corners region by the weekend cutting off the deeper tap of
moisture. So expect a decrease in activity by next weekend and
much drier weather pushing back in by early next week. Both the
GFS and ECMWF advertising a strengthening ridge over the Great
Basin, basically shutting down the round of monsoonal moisture.

Max temps will be cooler throughout the week with higher humidity
values and more cloud cover in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through tomorrow
morning. Some gusty afternoon winds will reach 20 to 30 mph at
times which will be the main concern today. A few showers or
storms may form over the highest terrain today but latest guidance
suggests this convection will be minimal at best. As stated above,
no effects expected for TAF airports.


Issued at 329 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Moisture continues to lift north towards the Four Corners region
this afternoon. This moisture is expected drive north and east
across most of our forecast area overnight and through the day
on Monday. This will bring an increased potential for
thunderstorms to the area, beginning this evening with activity
picking up during the day on Monday. Storms will initially be
high based and dry, producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and
lightning with little to no rainfall expected. With the forecast
area coming off the recent hot and dry stretch, will continue the
Red Flag Warning for this evening and issue a Fire Weather Watch
for Monday as many areas will not see much in the way of
convection tonight. The potential for wetting rains will increase
during the day on Monday, especially over the San Juan Mountains
and across the Abajo and La Sal Mountains in southeast Utah. With
humidity values climbing and storms becoming more efficient at
producing rainfall, expect the recent critical fire weather
conditions to start easing by late Monday night and Tuesday,
although gusty outflow winds and lightning will continue to be a
threat near any thunderstorms.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for COZ200-202-203-

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for COZ203-205-207-290>295.

UT...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ487-490-491.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for UTZ487-490-491.



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