Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 141658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1058 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Another warm day on tap as some clouds stream overhead thanks to a
strong Pacific system. While any precipitation from this system
looks to stay well to our north, it will cause an increase in
surface winds. The pressure gradient will start tightening this
morning and by noon, 700mb winds will reach between 30 to 40 mph.
By the early afternoon, if not before, these winds will mix down
bringing some gusty surface winds. The strongest winds look to
occur north of the Book Cliffs in both Utah and Colorado and also
southeastern Utah. Wind advisory criteria does not look like it
will be met but day shift should still keep an eye on local obs to
see if winds become stronger than originally thought. Fire weather
concerns will be heightened thanks to dry conditions and the
stronger winds across the CWA even though land agencies have
deemed most of these areas `not critical`.

Little change Saturday as precipitation continues to favor
Wyoming. We can expect another breezy day though winds will be
weaker than seen on Friday. Expect some clouds and continued warm
temperatures reaching above normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2016

A broad Pacific storm system will impact the weather through early
next week. Precipitation will be remain north of our area through
the weekend, but the resultant gradient from this system will
allow southwest winds to increase Saturday through Monday. Strong
gusty, southwest winds are expected on Sunday and Monday. As the
main trough pushes east on Monday, an associated cold front will
bring a chance of showers across northern portions of the area.
Winds will shift to more westerly and weaken on Tuesday as drier
and more seasonable temperatures return as a ridge of high
pressure builds west of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Cigs will remain aoa 120kft agl as mid to high level cloudiness
streaks across the Great Basin and Central Rockies. No
precipitation will fall from these clouds leaving high probability
of VFR conditions over the 24 hours at all TAF sites. The main
concern will be strong ridgetop winds creating turbulent
conditions and the mixing of these winds to the surface this
afternoon...leading to gusts over 25 mph at times. KRIL...KEGE
have the highest probability of seeing these winds with confidence
slightly lower at KASE and KTEX.




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