Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 041712
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1012 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE GREAT
BASIN AND REACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE OF
PRECIP INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW DENSITY SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. BEEN WATCHING CLOUD TOPS COOL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SALT LAKE
BASIN...BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LOT OF THE MOISTURE TO GET
WRUNG OUT WHEN PASSING THE WASATCH RANGE. SNOW RATIOS LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS PASSING TROUGH - SOMEWHERE FROM 17:1 TO 20:1 ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PASSES INCLUDING RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ERODE FRIDAY AS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

A FEW VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ELKHEAD/GORE/PARK RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT
MOST LIKELY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECTING
THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL LOSE A LOT OF THEIR SNOWPACK NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK THE INVERSION AT THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MIDDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...SNOW WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFT 00Z MOUNTAINS WILL BE FQTLY OBSCURED
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT KASE KEGE...ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
FROM 06Z-12Z TONIGHT. AFT 15Z VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE WITH SCT
-SHSN MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG TO KTEX.

SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR...SCT -SHSN FORMS AFT 00Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGJT KMTJ KTEX. MTN TOPS OCNLY OBSCD.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE


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