Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 070014
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
514 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM MONTANA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THIS PERIOD. ONLY OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...WILL
NOTICE ANY EFFECTS OF THIS ENERGY...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
OFFERING A GLANCING BLOW OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS DOWN ALONG THE DIVIDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK MINOR SHORTWAVES
IN THE FAST NW FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THIS SAME REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
AND SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS
FORECASTING HOW FAR BELOW GUIDANCE THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE GRAND AND GUNNISON VALLEYS...UINTAH BASIN
AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU ARE STRUGGLING...AND WELL BELOW THE MODELED
MAX TEMP. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE AGAIN SUNDAY. WILL ALSO BE
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE EACH NIGHT AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT
LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. LATE IN THE WEEK A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...DECREASING THE AMPLITUDE
A BIT BUT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OVER THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY. THE ONLY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. WITH WARMING
ALOFT AND ALL THE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE VALLEYS...THE
INVERSION WILL REMAIN. SO UNDERCUT VALLEY TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK...THOUGH STILL EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL WARMING TREND DAY TO
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER MORNING OF SOME PATCHY FOG OR
VICINITY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KCNY...KVEL...KASE AND KEGE AND NRN
VALLEYS. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF JUST YET TO SEE WHAT MODELS AND
OBS DO WITH BOUNARY LAYER AFTER SUN SETS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGR



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