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000
FXUS65 KGJT 160441
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING THOUGH COVERAGE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS/STORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY SHORT LULL AT 12Z BEFORE PICKING
UP AGAIN BY 15Z. NAM DID WELL TODAY WITH COVERAGE SO WILL FAVOR
THIS SOLN AND ADD POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD REALIZING THAT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED INDEED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN IS COMBINING TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON. GOES DERIVED TPW PRODUCT
SHOWS THE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I70
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS DISTINCT...BUT APPARENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED WINDS IS THE ENTRANCE
REGION THE UPPER JET ENTERING OUR CWA AS WELL. THE BEST STORM
ORGANIZATION IS SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA AND LIFTING NORTHWARD SO
THE SOUTHWEST LOWER VALLEYS LOOK TO HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABAJOS TO THE SAN JUANS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SUNSET BEGINS TO STABILIZE THINGS.
HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ALONG THE 315-320K THETA SURFACES
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE DIRECTED AT THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA
WITH PWATS INDICATING A BUMP UPWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPSTREAM
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW WHICH MAY KEEP
SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
FOCUS ISOLATED POPS ON THE TERRAIN BUT LATE NIGHT STORMS OFTEN HAVE
DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS WITHOUT THE MOUNTAIN WIND SYSTEM IN
PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS AND WILL RUN NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST
FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY...FAVORING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
FOCUS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR
FOR MID JUNE. WITH SOME MOISTENING FROM STORMS TODAY THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING PCPN TO THE GROUND ON SUNDAY LIMITED THE
THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW INCLINE UPWARDS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE AXIS OF THE BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
THEN SIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO
OREGON-NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THOUGH THE GFS AND EC HANDLE THE PACIFIC NW LOW DIFFERENTLY THEY
BOTH EVENTUALLY SPIN IT INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. MID LEVEL SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH FEW TO SCT EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT FORM
POSSIBLY REACHING 45 MPH OR SO. TAF SITES SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR
TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR KASE AND KEGE WHICH MAY SEE SOME VCTS OR A
PASSING TS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT THIS LATE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. NO GOOD FORCING SEE TO KEEP STORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER NEW STORMS. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NON-WETTING PRODUCING LESS
THAN 0.10 INCHES. VIRGA AND ITS ASSOCIATED GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSE A DANGER TO ANY ONGOING FIRE
ACTIVITIES.

SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE COLORADO FIRE ZONES.
SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. THEN A
PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHICH BRINGS A
DRYING TREND TO THE REGION. SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
MID WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
RH AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JOE