Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 180627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1227 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The cold front has accelerated across the Roan and eastern Tavaputs
Plateaus this afternoon. Short term models want to hang the front
from SE UT into the Central mountains tonight as the upper flow
begins to back ahead of the next system moving into the Pacific
NW. Clearing back to the west should spread into the northeast
zones after sunset and help shut off the bulk of the snow. Very
weak reflection of wave moving in with elevated moisture over the
cold front may keep some isolated showers going over the central
divide mountains but confidence low this occurs. Wet and slushy
roadways are likely to freeze so some travel issues persist into
the overnight hours. The main Pacific wave arrives on Tuesday and
will spread precipitation into the NE UT mountains by mid
morning. This wave will also bring along a front and another shot
of cooler air. Models could still be downplaying this a bit with
what we saw happen today especially with more instability to work
with. Again cold air with and behind the front pushes snow to
below the mountain bases with models still keying on the Gore and
Park ranges. The new runs of the NAM also run some snow down to
the Northern Elks. With energy and moisture continuing into the
evening hours may have to consider some winter highlights with
this one.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A true fall like day moves in for Wednesday behind the system with
temperatures ending up the lower side of normal. There could be
some snow showers lingering across the northern Park Range in the
cool northwest flow but for the most part mainly clear skies
should be in place. It looks to be a cold Thursday morning with
some of the coldest reading found many places this fall. The Grand
Valley and the southeast Utah valleys that have not seen
widespread freezing conditions may see this occur. Warming will be
moving to end this week and persist into early next week. High
cloudiness on Thursday will be the signal of the leading edge of
the upper ridge moving in. This ridge will break down by late
weekend as another strong system digs off the left coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions will continue across the area, though areas of mid
level moisture are expected to linger tonight north of I-70 with
bases around 15,000 ft MSL. Then increasing moisture and showers
will be spreading in from the northwest after 18Z reaching an area
north of a line from KVEL to KSBS by 00Z, then north and east of
a line from manila utah to KGUC by 06Z. Expect areas of MVFR and
local IFR with the showers. Snow levels will be lowering to
between 7000 and 8500 ft MSL north of I-70 and between 9000 and
10,000 ft MSL south of I-70 Tuesday evening.




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